Lessons the opposition parties should learn from Mnangagwa saga

By Don Chigumba

The expulsion of ED from ZANU PF has shocked many people in both ruling and opposition parties. Joice Mujuru was the first victim of the alleged ZANU PF infighting, she was accused of plotting to kill and overthrow Mr. Mugabe, surprisingly no action has been taken against Mujuru up to now.

ED’s expulsion from ZANU PF is very difficult to understand and grasp, it has come at a time when reasons leading to Mujuru’s expulsion are not yet explained by ZANU PF to the public.

No one has claimed to have understood ZANU PF from the time of the liberation struggle, through the period of Zimbabwe’s independence to present. The cause of deaths of Chitepo, Tongogara, Mukono and others reported after independence is still unknown and ZANU PF leadership has done totally nothing to let the public know what happened to our fallen heroes and heroines.

As I indicated earlier, the expulsion of ED in ZANU PF is still shrouded in secrecy just like the deaths reported in ZANU PF before and after independence of our country. The aim of this article is to examine two possible hypotheses in relation to ED’s expulsion from ZANU PF and caution the opposition forces not to take the ED saga for granted.

 Hypothesis One – ED saga may be a Drama Created by ZANU PF to Confuse Opposition Forces

The events leading to Joyce Mujuru’s expulsion from ZANU PF are not yet well explained and answered to date, there is a  strong feeling among some people that Mujuru is a ZANU PF project planted to destabilize opposition forces ahead of 2018 elections. 

Mr. Mugabe is known to be ruthless to his enemies, Joshua Nkomo is a good example, he had to retreat to exile during the period of Gukurahundi  when his life was in danger.

Since the expulsion of Mujuru from ZANU PF, Mr. Mugabe and his security have never harassed her. What could be the reasons for Mr. Mugabe to treat Joyce Mujuru with kid gloves? Is Mujuru a genuine enemy of Mr. Mugabe?

The reasons for expelling ED from ZANU PF are not adding up as well, was he expelled because of the alleged support he got from Midlands and Masvingo provinces? Was he plotting to overthrow Mr. Mugabe? Was it because he was the boss of Lacoste? I totally failed to grasp the reasons behind ED’s expulsion and keenly waiting for ZANU PF politburo report for further direction.

Reports from the media are that, ED escaped from Zimbabwe under mysterious circumstances. if allegations are true that ED escaped from Zimbabwe soon after expulsion, where was Mr. Mugabe’s security? How did he manage to travel by road from Harare to the eastern boarder of Mutare without being noticed by security agencies? Everyone know how Mr. Mugabe deals with his enemies and the circumstances surrounding ED’s exit are questionable.

If it is true that ED escaped via road transport, Mr. Mugabe could have opened an exit door for him to escape or ED has control of some sections of the security agencies.

There are allegations of ED being poisoned at a rally in Matabeleland, media reports are that, ED lost consciousness and was airlifted to South Africa for treatment.

Some sections of the media claimed that part of ED’s liver was damaged, despite these serious health cases, ED took only one week to recover from the effects of poisoning. The duration of recovery is questionable and Mr. Mugabe intensified his fight against ED soon after the poisoning incident. Everything is not adding up, some feel that all is a stage managed drama crafted by ZANU PF.

Hypothesis Two -ED’s Expulsion from ZANU PF may be Genuine

Another view on ED’s expulsion by some media reporters is that it was genuine, a struggle between G40 and the liberation war fathers or a fight between the two remaining ZANU PF mafias. The mysterious death of Solomon Mujuru vindicates this hypothesis, Solomon Mujuru, Robert Mugabe and ED were the well know  ZANU PF mafia remaining on earth. There is an argument that ED and Mr. Mugabe knew what caused to Solomon Mujuru’s death but the problem now is on who should die first between Mr. Mugabe and ED?

The media reported Mr. Mugabe telling ZANU PF supporters that ED went to a Traditional Prophet and was told that he would die before Mr. Mugabe. It seems that there is now lack of trust between Mr. Mugabe and ED and they are likely to be the last people with information on the mysterious deaths of ZANU PF leaders before and after independence. Therefore, ED could have been forced to seek refuge in exile in order to wait for the passage of time to take Mr. Mugabe away.

If it is true that the expulsion of ED from ZANU PF is genuine, we should expect some deaths to be reported among top ZANU PF officials or even a coup. This is the time to examine the powers of Joyce Mujuru Vs ED, Mujuru is proving to be a weak leader and her force against ZANU PF is insignificant.

There are quite a number of leaders within ZUNU PF who are joining infighting like Prof. Jono and others without understanding the ‘blood political dynamics’ within ZANU PF and time will be their best judge.

Conclusion

Mr. Tsvangirai and other opposition leaders should be careful when handling the ED saga, they failed to absorb Joyce Mujuru to their coalition and media reports are that Mr. Tsvangirai is inviting ED to their group. 

Just like Mujuru, ED is a very difficult man to understand and the opposition should be careful when handling the prodigal daughter and son of ZANU PF. The opposition should choose to either ignore ED and his ZANU PF drama nor taking advantage of the commotion and destabilize ZANU PF from within.

I can conclude by saying, the ZANU PF ball was on Joyce Mujuru, today is on ED but who is next?

Don Chigumba is a Political Analyst Based in South Africa