It is yet again a bloody high noon in Zanu PF as Emmerson Mnangagwa seeks to unconstitutionally extend his tenure as party leader and national President closing out both the opposition and a rival internal faction led by his deputy and former army commander Constantino Nyikadzino Guvheya Chiwenga.
It’s a high stakes game dominated by bullets, handcuffs, songs and slogans as Emmerson Mnangagwa seeks to succeed himself.
From the bullets planted at the bedroom door of Mnangagwa’s son David to the reported arson at ED’s house in Borrowdale; from army commander General Sanyatwe’s acerbic and highly political rant at a rally in Nyanga to the chorus across the provinces calling for Mnangagwa to violate the Constitution and remain in office beyond his term, everything is pointing to a mortal internal battle within Zanu PF in a bloody tussle that marks the end of the civil-military alliance that instigated the November 2017 coup.
Dear reader, we are exactly where we were on the eve of the coup in November 2017. As I have repeatedly said in the past few months, this definitely will not end well.
Hazvipere Mushe Izvi
This succession intrigue is highly likely to result in blood, coffins and a gigantic l seismic shift in the country’s politics.
Through outright rigging and by dint of an accident of history, Zanu PF is the governing party and whatever happens within that rotten party has serious national implications.
This week, I look at the tell-tale signs of a very serious morbid succession battle between the ED and Chiwenga factions.
I do hereby caution that this will not end well.
Through a brutal scorched earth policy of both hard and soft power, ED has sought to decisively deal with his internal and external enemies using a deliberate carrot and stick approach that combines both harm and charm.
On the charm path he is abusing State resources to buy support while with the harm method, he is abusing State institutions to brutalise and punish his opponents..
In terms of the opposition, ED has bribed others and clamped down hard on those that are genuine in opposing Zanu PF, which explains why Sengezo Tshabangu and his team will get State funding through the Political Finance Act while Jameson Timba and his lot are languishing in prison.
Cheap souls have been bribed both internally and externally..
Internally, ED has allegedly used money to purchase the support of key figures in the Youth League, the Women’s League, and the War Veterans League to rally behind the unconstitutional and highly treasonous mantra of “2030 VaMnangagwa vanenge vachipo vachitonga”.
Trinkets that include cars, fuel coupons and even houses have reportedly been doled out to the various party organs and provinces in a dire quest to achieve a high pitched national chorus across the party organs entreating him to remain in office.
Dear reader, the internal fissures within Zanu PF have reached fever pitch as the two factions seek to outsmart each other in gruelling succession intrigue that will certainly not end well.
As ED and Chiwenga engage in their vicious combat, everything points to the fact that we are living the moment of 2017; in the very imminence of a gargantuan, bloody fallout that may leave our streets littered with blood and cadavers!
The tussle between the two Zanu PF kingpins has tumbled down to the constituencies and is now playing out even at the lowly level of Zanu PF ward and village structures.
In my rural hood of Domboshava recently, the local MP Biata Nyampinga who bought her seat from the gullible among us was publicly excoriated when she snubbed the government-sponsored Family Day celebrations held at Domboshava Caves.
At that function at Domboshava Caves, an infuriated and livid Apollonia Munzverengwi who presided over the event removed her jacket and accused Nyampinga of snubbing the celebrations because she is aligned to Chiwenga.
When Nyampinga then held her victory celebrations the following day at Nyamande in ward 8, the local Zanu PF leadership that had attended Munzverengwi’s function the previous day snubbed her celebrations for fear of being tarred with the same brush
Dear reader, the ED/Chiwenga tiff is very real and has filtered right down to their grassroot structures.
The ominous signs of a high noon in Zanu PF
ED’s offensive attack
1. The 2030 slogan
Internally in ZANU PF, ED reportedly started firing the first offensive volley by contesting the 2023 Presidential election when the purported gentleman’s agreement with Chiwenga after the coup was that he would only run one term.
Now it has turned out he did not only breach the agreement by running a second term but now seeks to exceed beyond its expiry in 2028.
This second offensive salvo to exceed beyond his term limit was first fired in February 2024 in Masvingo at the National Youth Day celebrations at Mushagashe vocational training centre.
That is where the “2030 vaMnangagwa Vanenge Vachipo Vachitonga” slogan was launched.
In spite of his insincere pronouncement in Mutare that he will stick to the Constitution and not go beyond his second term, there has been a palpably sponsored flurry of exhortations across the party’s provincial structures for ED to unconstitutionally remain in office..
Judging by the way newly appointed Commissar Clemence Machacha handled a recent provincial meeting in Masvingo, it is clear the lower structures are being coached and are simply echoing a command from above.
It is this controversial slogan to breach the Constitution and prolong his stay in office that has triggered a high noon within Zanu PF, spawning a November 2017 moment of imminent bloodshed and uncertainty..
Political Science teaches us that political regimes operate on the basis of elite cohesion, or unity of the leaders, which ought to bring order and stability both to the country and the political organisations they lead.
But what is now clear is that Zanu PF is currently arrested by elite rupture, or leadership division, itself a preamble to regime breakdown and chaos.
This morbid tussle between ED and Chiwenga is certainly a harbinger of chaos, blood and trouble that may inadvertently lead to repercussions far beyond the narrow Zanu PF precincts.
This high noon that is highly likely to implode soon was triggered by ED’s blatantly unconstitutional fancy to serve beyond his current term.
2. Oiling the choir
ED did not only sponsor the slogan but oiled the entire party machinery to echo it across the country.
Using the soft power of Wicknell “My Son” Chivayo’s money ‘, ED reportedly bought top of the range vehicles and other trinkets for the top brass of the Youth League, the Women’s League and a section of the War Veterans League to sonorously shout the slogan for him to remain in office beyond his term.
So ED did not only fire off the offensive by sponsoring the slogan, he oiled its chorusing by party structures across the length and breadth of the party.
3. Tinkering with the Commissariat
ED knew that the party Commissariat was a key department to drive his nefarious intention to stay in office beyond his term.
Indeed, the reason why the majority of past Zanu PF national Commissars died in mysterious circumstances is precisely because this key department is the hub and custodian of party structures and all party programmes.
Mike Bimham the recently deposed former Zanu PF national commissa,r comes from Chikomba in Chivhu in Mashonaland East province, also the home province of General Chiwenga.
In fact Chivhu district, where Bimha comes from, and Wedza district, from where Chiwenga hails, are neighbourly districts.
Given that he wanted to politically bury his deputy, ED probably felt he could not trust a Commissar who comes from the same province with Chiwenga.
He had to line his ducks well.
At an urgent, nocturnal press conference held one evening in May this year, Bimba was relieved of his duties for no explained reasons.
Munyaradzi Machacha, the former principal of the Chitepo School of Ideology and a Mnangagwa ally, was announced as his replacement.
It is pertinent to state that Machacha comes from Masvingo and is a Karanga, just like Mnangagwa.
Indeed, dear reader, there is also a loud tribal ring to the unravelling Zanu PF succession intrigue.
4. “Chiwenga’s handcuffs”
The high noon and the elite rupture within the Zanu PF Presidium was openly revealed by party spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa who accused Chiwenga of masterminding the arrest of his son, Neville.
Mutsvangwa was very clear that it all had to do with Chiwenga’s succession ambition.
He even accused the retired general of seeking to drive the wedge betwen him and Mnangagwa.
Recently,, Oppah Muchinguri, yet another ED ally, had her daughter arrested amid hushed factional accusations tied to Zanu PF’s succession intrigue.
Dear reader, it is not likely to end well.
Hazvipere Mushe Izvi.
5. Cranking the engine in Chiwenga’s backyard
ED showed he was the mastermind of the controversial slogan when he made Cabinet Ministers to publicly chant the controversial 2030 mantra.
As part of his brinkmanship and in his bid to embarrass and directly take the game to his deputy, he made sure he did this in Chikomba in Chiwenga’s home province.
And as if to confirm that there is a vicious war of attrition between the two, Chiwenga has not been seen chanting this slogan whenever it has been chorused in his presence.
Indeed, it is high noon in Zanu PF.
The widely leaked optics of hordes of Zanu PF youths at Murehwa Centre in Mashonaland East chanting for ED to remain in office beyond his term was a well choreographed taunt to Chiwenga.
The subtle message from ED behind the singing crowd in Murehwa was that even party members from your own province want me to stay!
6. Removing Protector Plus: The Party will choose
In his speech in Mutare, ED might have been pushed back when he publicly said he would not serve beyond 2028.
Yet he still managed to fire an offensive salvo, even in that presumed moment of capitulation..
It was clear that he was not happy to be pushed back.
In a veiled message that was probably meant for Chiwenga’s ears, Mnangagwa told the party faithful in Mutare that both the party and the national Constitutions were clear about the five year terms and he would not serve beyond 2028.
He then said the party would choose his successor when the time comes, basically telling Chiwenga that no coup pact would protect his ambition as the race was going to be wide open to everyone.
It was not necessarily that ED had suddenly become a disciple of democratic competition, Hell No. The message to his deputy was that coup pact or no coup pact, you are not going to have my backing and protection.
This means should he decide to drop his plans to violate the Constitution by extending his term, ED could even sponsor a candidate just to to undermine Chiwenga, if not for anything else!
The point he was making was that no one is going to be protected by any pact. Tiri kunochivhura kumunu wese!
And if ED fails to succeed himself, Machacha may have already started putting in place mechanisms to ensure that party structures elect Mnangagwa’s preferred successor.
And that horse will definitely not be Chiwenga.
The Chiwenga pushback strategies
1. Bullets for the sins of the father:
It is widely rumoured within Zanu PF circles that following ED’s overt plan to shut him out, it is the general and his team who planted bullets outside the bedroom door of Mnangagwa’s son, David, who is also the deputy Minister of Finance.
At a property with round the clock protection from the police, some Zanu PF insiders are saying no civilian could mount such a recklessly audacious operation to barge into the deputy Minister’s house in the dead of the night to drop a parcel of bullets.
They are pointing to the “ghost raider” episode as being the handiwork of an elite army unit in the mould of the Commando.
Given that Chiwenga is a former general, there are suspicions that Chiwenga might have sent the bullet as a message to Mnangagwa to stop his plans to stay in office beyond his term and to effectively freeze him out of the succession race.
2. An overtly military intelligence offensive
The planted bullets, the raid raid on ED’s nephew Tongai Mnangagwa’s offices as well as the reported breach on ED’s Borrowdale property are all purported to have been part of Chiwenga’s pushback military-led strategy to stall Mnangagwa.
3. ED recoils tail in Mutare
ED may have reignited his bid to stay in power in the past two weeks, but Chiwenga’s minions allege that Mnangagwa’s capitulation speech in Mutare was a mark of success, on their part in halting the 2030 juggernaut., albeit temporarily.
They attribute ED’s concession and his pledge to sticking to the Constitutional term limits as a victory, however pyrrhic, of their pushback antics.
4. Sanyatwe’s Nyanga rant
Unbeknown to many people, Sanyatwe’s Nyanga rant was a direct response to Mnangagwa.
Sanyatwe, who was the head of the Presidential Guard in 2017, is a key ally of Chiwenga. He reportedly played a key role in the coup by changing Mugabe’s drivers and members of his close protection team at the crucial hour in order to effect the house arrest at the former leader’s Blue Roof mansion.
With Mnangagwa having appointed Machacha as party Commissar, it was poignant that Sanyatwe told the rally in Nyanga that the army was the true and ultimate commissariat and that he, as the army chief, was the bona fide party commissar.
This was a direct message to Mnangagwa from the military faction of the civil-military coalition that mounted the 2017 coup.
The message was that ED’s civilian structures and appointees at party headquarters will all be useless and ineffective when the zero hour comes, be it at the party Congress or whatever electoral process will be used to choose a successor.
Sanyatwe’s message aligns well with that of Chiwenga on the eve of the coup when he described the army as a”stockholder” in Zanu PF.’s internal affairs.
Dear reader, you may be wondering why Sanyatwe is suddenly becoming so loud. These are the guys with a huge sense of entitlement because they led the coup.
In fact, it is being rumoured that Sanyatwe fancies himself as the incoming deputy President in their envisaged dispensation that seeks to install Chiwenga as President!
5. Calling out the provinces
The other push back strategy by the Chiwenga faction has been to directly call the party’s provincial structures, urging them not to embrace the chorus exhorting ED to extend his term.
By yesterday, I am told Chiwenga himself had directly called six provincial chairpersons not to heed this 2030 chorus.
It remains to be seen whether he has any traction of his own on the ground.
6. A leash-slipping security sector
Constitutionally, ED is the President and Commander-In-Chief, which means he is the ultimate head of all the security arms of the State, be it the police, the army and the intelligence services.
For ED’s allies like Mutsvangwa to claim that his son was arrested at the instigation of Chiwenga, a Vice President is to arrogate too much power to a deputy President.
Either ED is playing his allies that he is unaware of all these arrests or the security forces have indeed leash-slipped and are taking instructions from elsewhere, well outside of the knowledge and control of the Commander-In-Chief.
By his own act of commission, ED appears to be confirming that his back is on the wall in terms of control over the security sector, given the changes he recently made that include promoting loyalists within the security services ector.
For example, within the CIO, as paranoia and a sense of vulnerability set in, ED is reported to have recently promoted his relative Victor Miga to head the close protection unit, probably for fear of what happened to Mugabe in his last days in power.
One Mashandure was appointed deputy director while several loyal assistant directors within the CIO were promoted, all probably as an attempt by Mnangagwa to coup-proof himself.
Several other changes were recently made within the police force where a total of 57senior police officers were reportedly retired last month.
Those retired include David Mahoya, Erasmus Makodza, Kudakwashe Mubami, Richard Mahoya Basera, Priscilla Makotose and Winston Muza, among many others.
Insiders allege a sense of vulnerability on the part of Mnangagwa, who probably felt his deputy appeared to have firm control over the top echelons of the various arms of the country’s security services.
NB: Dear reader, as the rumour mill goes into overdrive over the unravelling Zanu PF’s succession intrigue that could turn nasty, kindly take note that many other counter theories continue to emerge.
One such theory is that ED could be faking the onslaught on him, his family and allies in order to create a victim image.
This school of thought alleges that all those bullets and the alleged siege on him, his family and associates that his allies are placing on Chiwenga’s doorstep could all be part of an elaborate inside job instigated by Mnangagwa himself.
Indeed, this school of thought believes ED could be doing it to himself in a crude form of political masturbation, which suits him well and could give him justification to pounce on his alleged political opponents when the time comes.
Conclusion: Who will blink first?
Dear reader, in these dicey times of political high noon, it is always difficult to distinguish between facts, banter and political subterfuge.
But what is undeniable is that all evidence point to the fact that there is trouble in paradise, especially after Mnangagwa showed signs of wanting to remain on his stolen chair beyond the expiry of his term
All the facts and evidence point to a vicious succession war in Zanu PF, even as we read yesterday’s story that there had been a laser attack on ED’s plane as he touched down at the airport from his trip to Mozambique on 12 July 2024.
As usual, whenever these vicious internal Zanu PF wars start, forget about anyone in government paying attention to the serious matters affecting the ordinary citizens.’, the biggest of which is corruption.
Already, and for obvious reasons, they have conveniently ignored ZECgate, and the massive government incompetence and corruption as exposed by the 2023 Auditor-General’s report.
It is certainly high noon in Zanu PF and they are all now concentrating on this vicious succession war.
But it will definitely not end well.
The bullets, blood, money, handcuffs, songs and slogans that have underlined this unravelling Zanu PF succession intrigue all point to blood looming on the horizon.
Hazvipere Mushe Izvi.
Luke Tamborinyoka is a citizen from Domboshava. He is a journalist and a political scientist by profession. You can interact with him via his facebook page or via the X handle luke_tambo
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