Mugabe vs Mujuru: To split or not to split (Part 2)

Analysis by Itai Dzamara

Both Zanu PF leader Robert Mugabe and his deputy Joice Mujuru clearly know the magnitude and consequences of the serious fight, that they are locked in against each other – the question is whether or not they are prepared to bear the ultimate costs, of especially the major likelihood.

I will go straight to the major possibility, and for which the stakes are invariably too high. Either Mugabe or Mujuru should fall at the end of their fight, and that may be asserted and pronounced in just four months, at the Zanu PF congress in December.

It is very key to emphasise that Mugabe and Mujuru are mere symbols and figure-heads of camps or missions whose roots and interests go deeper beneath the surface. As l articulated in the previous analysis, Mugabe has desperately sprung into battle after realising danger coming from a now very powerful Mujuru camp.

The Zanu PF leader has resorted to grabbing anything for deployment into the battle, and, subsequently would inevitably take along a pliable Mnangagwa faction – spiced now with additions such as Grace Mugabe joining the chaotic battle.

That way, Mugabe has a complete army, arsenal and unit on his side, from the top going all the way to the grassroots, because, the Mnangagwa camp has lately been hard at work to counter and battle the Mujuru faction. 

In addition, Mugabe shall certainly leverage on his deeply-entrenched personal aura and image of authority and popularity within Zanu PF. On the surface, that would lead us to easily conclude and predict a simple crushing of the Mujuru faction by the multi-faceted Mugabe outfit.

No, not at all, because of two major factors.

First, the Mujuru camp has maximised on its opportunities to record huge gains in the battle for support of key party organs and provinces, against the Mnangagwa faction – which has become Mugabe’s vehicle for the fight. It is not going to be easy within the remaining period of time for the Mugabe camp to dismantle those gains made by the Mujuru faction.

I find Mugabe to be in complicated circumstances because, as party leader, he shall have to continue avoiding openly engaging in factional discourse and narrative. He can’t openly campaign for the Mnangagwa faction or fight the other, and will leave it to the likes of Grace, Oppah Muchinguri, Jonathan Moyo and others – who will continue to be fair customers for the Mujuru faction.

It is, in the same vein, illustrative to note that even Emmerson Mnangagwa is not openly engaging in the dirty fights, precisely for the same reasons l explain about Mugabe.

By the way, l don’t see Grace having much of any magic beyond the women’s league, and, the more she rants and raves, the more she keeps revealing apparent stupidity and shallowness, which shall significantly reduce her aura and authority Mugabe hopes to ride on.

The second factor is that, in the race for key positions in top structures, the Mujuru faction is perfectly positioned and it shall require Mugabe to go out of his traditional ways and do very extra-ordinary things to stop that – at a huge cost, if he decides to, l have no doubt.

Starting with Joice Mujuru herself. Traditionally, Mugabe would be expected to protect his deputy from even any challenge. There was never an instance when he changed that system in the past. And, it has always been effective for Mugabe in protecting his own interests and position.

This seriously implies that a move by Mugabe to set up a challenge for Mujuru, would be indirect exposure of his own position and hold on power, also to a challenge. But, this time, the stakes are too high and Mugabe may have to plot for Mujuru’s ouster, yet without him being guaranteed success.

For, it is very possible that Mujuru may trounce whoever would be fielded against her. It is very key to note that the Mujuru faction is having the Nikuv element in running Zanu PF elections, through the key positions of secretary for administration, national commissar and national chairman being in their hands – which will remain the case going into congress.

Therefore, it might mean Mugabe doing a real miracle to oust Mujuru through an election. And, for that matter, any other means are both inconceivable and certain to result in utter chaos and disorder. The Mujuru faction has also perfected the arts of barbarism or dirty tactics and am sure will prove themselves, if Mugabe makes the mistake of going that route.

The same applies with the race for other key positions. Simon Khaya Moyo must be automatically elevated to position of second vice president, unless, again, Mugabe wants to break his tradition – at a huge risk and cost again. If he chooses to, it would have to go into a situation of a challenger taking on Moyo into an election, with the same dynamics l outlined above at play.

Didymus Mutasa, the ace in the pack of the Mujuru faction, already has one foot into the position of national chairman. Unless, some magic is done, l really don’t see anything stopping Mutasa. Given these scenarios, Mugabe is in real trouble and faced with very difficult options in trying to stop the Mujuru faction from taking over the presidium.

In reality, Mugabe will have to summon all the ghosts of the likes of Chenjerai Hunzvi, Border Gezi, Elliot Manyika and other thugs, to unleash thuggery and barbarism. If he does, he will get it back in equal measure. It will become the game of the jungle, without rules, and where anything goes or dies – including the king himself.

That may likely result in a split. I would bet on Mugabe grudgingly avoiding that, and this takes me to assessing the other option or possibility. Mugabe may eventually broker a deal with the Mujuru faction, that sees them take over charge of key positions but agree to let him stay put until he dies.

Mugabe’s major and primary concern in all this remains his desire to die in power and office – to which the Mujuru faction is posing a real threat. It is possible that he may engage the faction and obtain a guarantee that would result in less chaos, fighting and negative consequences.

However, l get the sense that Mugabe no longer trusts anyone to the extent of banking his selfish plans on their mercy and whims. Because of that, he may be reluctant to negotiate a deal. He is obviously under no illusions about both the huge muscle of the Mujuru camp, and their possible desire to kick him out – they were behind the 2008 ‘bhora musango’ sabotage project that cost him dearly.

If Mugabe were to strike a deal with Mujuru faction and get to stay put and safe while the camp takes its lead over Mnangagwa into the skies, the latter faction will certainly be aggrieved. The Mnangagwa faction will make similar noise about allegations of rigging, and so forth, but without stopping the Mujuru juggernaut.

I don’t see the Mnangagwa camp causing a split in the event of that, also because Mugabe would have endorsed the deal, for his own benefit and obviously whip the Mnangagwa camp to painstakingly eat the bitter pie.

Lastly, the other possibility and game changer could come through killings of a couple key players deeply involved in the game, especially within the Mujuru camp – which l find to be way too late to anticipate. It is almost impossible, because, everyone is wide awake, anxious and agitated, making it difficult to execute murder plots.

The too much attention and focus would not allow for a mysterious death of even one top official. 

Or, Mugabe’s possible death before the congress, which would change the whole scenario and guarantee the Mujuru camp a romp to victory, yet with higher chances of a split – the Mnangagwa faction would surely not countenance the situation of Mugabe gone and the Mujuru camp virtually taking over.