By Jonathan Chawora
The entry of Grace Mugabe into active politics has understandably generated a lot of interest amongst Zimbabweans. I wish to add my thoughts to the discussion as I think this is a significant development and will have an impact on the future direction of the country.
The general line taken by the media is that Grace’s entry implies an advantage for the Mnangagwa camp and even suggesting that there is an attempt by the highest office to push forward the Mnangagwa candidacy.
It has been suggested that Oppah Muchinguri is lined up to challenge Mai Mujuru for the vice-presidency and that Mai Mujuru and Grace Mugabe do not see eye to eye. It has also been assumed that the support of Grace Mugabe gives an advantage to the Mnangagwa camp. I do not subscribe to this view, for reasons I will offer below.
I do not know where the idea that Grace Mugabe is coming to support the Mnangagwa camp comes from. I would also dismiss the suggestion in the media that Grace’s nomination to the post of Women’s Chair is subject to the approval of Robert Mugabe and the Politburo.
There is no way that Grace would have taken such a big step without the blessing of her husband. This is a done deal, initiated in their bedroom. But the question is “why?”
What I do know is that what we are witnessing is not new in Zimbabwean politics. The Western diplomat who said that Robert Mugabe is always ahead of his opponents and often sets the agenda was spot-on.
Mugabe has a tendency to spring up surprises at crucial moments, which leaves his political opponents flat footed. He did it during last year’s election, when everybody expected Zanu (PF) to use violence in the run up to the elections, but instead Mugabe rigged the election in a manner which left everybody stunned and not knowing what had hit them.
In 2005 he out-manoeuvred the Mnangagwa camp to give Mai Mujuru a clear run for the vice presidency, thus balancing the succession forces.
The in 2008 he clearly lost the election but managed to delay the announcement of the results of the Presidential election whilst he worked out a plan to recover, and eventually he recovered.
He tends to bend the rules if he needs to, which has happened in the case of Grace’s nomination.
In normal circumstances Grace Mugabe will not be eligible to be nominated for that post. The question that arises therefore is what is Mugabe’s plan?
The answer to that is that nobody really knows at this stage, but clearly the answer will come in due course. However there are certain things that we are sure of.
Mr Editor my position has always been that Mugabe plans to go from State House to Heroes’ Acre, and there is nothing to suggest that anything has changed.
At the age of 90 you would expect any normal person to be looking beyond himself and preparing the ground for his children and younger people in his government and his party.
This man is different. It is all about securing his position. He is not even worried about his legacy. This is a typical characteristic of all dictators. I wish many people could understand this point because it is important in terms of the strategies to bring democracy to Zimbabwe.
We also know that recently Robert Mugabe made it clear that he is worried about factionalism between the Mnangagwa and Mujuru camps and he tried to diffuse it by suggesting that there are other contenders outside these two.
My take on that is that he is more worried that there are two individuals who are possibly ready to take over from him than the stability of the party. We also know that he has failed so far to diffuse the focus on Mnangagwa and Mujuru.
We know that he likes to control processes rather than react to events. We know that there is Congress coming up in December.
We also know that he was heavily involved in the just ended Youth Congress, to the point that he is reported to have monitored proceedings up to the early hours of the morning, apart from donating food to the youths.
He does not usually donate his personal possessions. This clearly shows that he is very much interested in the outcome of the Congress.
Given that Mugabe wants to die in office, given that the economy is in a tailspin, and given that he is now 90 years old and is not in good health, although he is desperate to portray himself as a healthy individual, it makes sense that he should try and control the outcome of the Congress.
My view is that if any individual emerges strong out of the congress this may not go down well with Robert Mugabe. I do not believe that Mugabe wants anybody to emerge strong from the Congress as this will raise calls for him to hand over power to someone to deal with the economy and move the country forward.
After all he has previously said that he will not go until he is sure that his party is united and is able to move forward without him.
Current media reports that Mai Mujuru’s camp has done well in the Youth Congress. If this is true and if this trend continues in the Women’s Congress, Mai Mujuru should fear for her life and I will not be surprised if there is a media blitz to expose her corrupt activities or attempts to tarnish her image.
Either way the manoeuvre has nothing to do with strengthening Zanu (PF) and more to do with Mugabe trying to ensure his continued rule to the end of his life, and possibly beyond. ChangeZimbabwe.com
