Why its not easy for Mugabe to get rid of Mnangagwa
By Lance Guma
Ever since President Robert Mugabe ruthlessly dispatched the now former Vice President Joice Mujuru, speculation has centred on whether her replacement, Emmerson Mnangagwa, will suffer the same fate given similar allegations that he leads a faction angling for him to succeed the 92 year Zanu PF leader.
What most of the analysis being bandied around chooses to forget is that there are clear and major differences between Mnangagwa and Mujuru. Unlike Mujuru, Mnangagwa has done a lot of dirty work for President Robert Mugabe both as State Security Minister, Defence Minister, Justice Minister and chairman of the Joint Operations Command (JOC).
Getting rid of Mnangagwa can never be the proverbial walk in the park. It appears obvious Mugabe would rather play a tactical game with his deputy. Instead of confronting Mnangagwa directly, Mugabe has deployed political attack dogs like Sarah Mahoka, Mandi Chimene and his own wife Grace Mugabe to whip Mnangagwa into line.
In February, Mahoka (Zanu-PF Women’s League secretary for finance) challenged Mnangagwa not to “sit like a lame duck” and respond to the factionalism allegations. Last week, Chimene (Manicaland Provincial Affairs Minister) called for Mugabe to sack Mnangagwa. Grace Mugabe has dished out similar but veiled attacks towards the VP.
It is doubly obvious given his background that Mnangagwa enjoys the support of the military and from the stance of the war veterans and the Gushungo Bombing saga the military’s support for Mugabe is tenuous. Two weeks ago, the war veterans, a reserve military force, announced they would no longer be supporting a “dictatorial” Mugabe.
The same war veterans had no qualms demanding that Mugabe step down to make way for Mnangagwa. At a counter rally, organised by Mugabe to neutralise the damning statement from the war vets, the country’s military and state security chiefs were conspicuous by their absence. In the past they have never been shy to show their faces at such events.
This week Mugabe went to great lengths to defend Mnangagwa claiming there were some in the party trying to divide the top leadership by making allegations that were not backed by any evidence. Mugabe said there would be no changes to the presidium and advised Mnangagwa to address a press conference denying he leads a faction within the party.
We know Mugabe is not sincere, he is playing the competing interests in his party against each other. This is high stakes political chess. There is no good reason for Mugabe to not want his wife, Grace to take over as President. What he does know however is that his wife remains divisive and unpopular within the party. Mnangagwa remains a trusted alternative.
In a press conference this week Mnangagwa said “Let it not be forgotten that both during my incarceration for a period of 10 years — from 1965 to 1974 — and after my release in 1974, I have always had a personal relationship with the President, who to me is not just a father figure but a principal mentor, after whom I fashion all my political behaviour.
“Again for the sake of the young generation in the party, it was the President, Cde RG Mugabe, who selected and appointed me in 1977 to take up the sensitive post of Head of Security during the armed struggle as the Special Assistant to the President in charge of both military and civil divisions.”
He went on, “That same confidence expressed itself in 1980 at Independence when the President, Cde RG Mugabe, then Prime Minister, appointed me Minister of State Security. All these appointments leading to what I am today speak of the close and trustworthy relation I have maintained with my President.
It could be true that Mugabe is not comfortable with Mnangagwa’s close ties with the military and the war veterans but then how do you fire the chief architect of your violence machinery without reaping the consequences of creating a dangerous enemy? Both Mugabe and Mnangagwa have a very close relationship sealed by the blood they have both spilt.
Mnangagwa as State Security Minister played a key role in the Gukurahundi Massacres that saw over 20 000 civilians butchered to death in the Matabeleland and Midlands provinces. It was again Mnangagwa as head of the Joint Operations Command (JOC) that violently kept Mugabe in power following his humiliating defeat in the 2008 presidential elections.
Both men are riding the same political tiger. Whoever tries to get off first, gets eaten. They are stuck together for the foreseeable future until something seismic changes the political configuration. Even if Mugabe wants someone else to succeed him he will keep Mnangagwa close by the same way he did after the infamous “Tsholotsho Declaration” when influential party members plotted to have Mnangagwa succeed Muzenda as VP. Nehanda Radio
