Fresh divisions around Mugabe

By Dumisani Muleya/ Faith Zaba

Fresh political divisions have emerged around President Robert Mugabe whose continued stay in power ahead of the party’s key conference and elections is increasingly becoming a catalyst for internal strife within Zanu PF and state structures.

Extensive briefings to the Zimbabwe Independent this week show whereas Mugabe’s inner political circle and close courtiers were relatively united even at the height of the economic meltdown and hyperinflation in 2008, new strains among them have now emerged due to the latest turbulent events, widening existing divisions.

Informed sources say Mugabe’s inner circle, which includes members of the Joint Operations Command (JOC), political diehards and personal advisors, is now divided due to mutual suspicions and tensions, mainly after WikiLeaks disclosures.

Before the 2008 elections there was a thread of largely consistent and cohesive cooperation between JOC, Mugabe’s close advisors and allies like Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono, his central bank bureaucracy and Zanu PF heavyweights, mainly Emmerson Mnangagwa and his faction.

The Zanu PF camp led by the late retired army commander General Solomon Mujuru wanted Mugabe out. The Mujuru faction  tried but failed to remove Mugabe as the candidate at the party’s extraordinary congress in December 2007, where former politburo member Dumiso Dabengwa and Simba Makoni, who later quit in frustration, were geared to mount a surprise challenge against their leader.

JOC, which brings together army, police and intelligence chiefs, includes members like Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Constantine Chiwenga, Police Commissioner-General Augustine Chihuri, Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO)  Director-General retired Major-General  Happyton Bonyongwe, Air Marshal Perance Shiri and retired Major-General Prisons Commissioner Paradzai Zimondi.

This group, despite its own internal contradictions fuelled by Zanu PF factionalism, fought fiercely to keep Mugabe in power during the elections in 2008. It was largely supported by Gono who availed resources for its operations and Mugabe’s campaigns.

Gono and his central bank bureaucracy worked closely with JOC and the state apparatus structures to save Mugabe from defeat. Sources however say this group is now fractured and engaged in political skirmishes due to recent events which rocked the party like the WikiLeaks disclosures, the death of Mujuru and the controversy over Mugabe being a candidate in the next election.

“Before and during the 2008 elections, there was an organised group around Mugabe which included members of JOC, RBZ and a few Zanu PF officials working closely to ensure Mugabe’s continued stay in power,” a source said. “Although most Zanu PF officials wanted him out, this group rescued Mugabe.”

“However, the situation has now dramatically changed because of different events, including WikiLeaks revelations, Mujuru’s death and the issues of conference and elections. There are now serious divisions to be found within this group. For instance, relations between Chiwenga, Shiri, Bonyongwe, Chihuri, Gono and others have changed in major ways.

These individuals and by implication the institutions they head are no longer working as closely and systematically as they were during times of adversity in 2008 and before.”

A senior government official said relations between JOC members, Gono and others around Mugabe chilled after WikiLeaks disclosures in which Chiwenga, Bonyongwe and Gono were mentioned in different cables amid plots and counter-plots to get each other arrested.

“So many things have been happening but after WikiLeaks the environment was poisoned,” the official said. “There have been tensions and suspicions within JOC. There have been problems between officials like Bonyongwe and Gono. Relations between Gono and the likes of Chiwenga and Chihuri have also become frosty. Chiwenga and Shiri don’t see eye to eye.”

“Now we practically have a Hobbesian state of existence –– everyone fighting against everyone. It’s a dog eat dog situation, survival of the fittest. Political players are very selfish; they are willing to hurt each other if they think that will help them to survive.”

Officials say Gono and some of senior officials at the RBZ also have tensions. The situation is said to have been worsened by divisions on the issue of Tsvangirai’s Highlands house purchase. While some officials around Mugabe want Tsvangirai arrested, others have warned this would be ill-advised as it could ignite political mayhem.

… Zanu PF stuck with leader

ZANU PF is stuck with President Robert Mugabe ahead of its conference in Bulawayo next month and crucial elections expected either next year or in 2013.

While there is a lot of informal debate in Zanu PF about the need to replace Mugabe because of old age and ill-health, senior party officials are finding it difficult to deal with the issue because of the party’s constitutional provisions, which clearly state that a person elected president at a congress becomes the party’s candidate at  elections between congresses.

According to the Zanu PF constitution, one of the powers and functions of the conference is to declare the president of the party elected at congress as the party’s candidate. In between regular congresses the change of a presidential candidate can only be done at an extraordinary congress. Six weeks’ notice is required to convene such a congress.

Because Mugabe was duly elected at the party’s 2009 congress in Mutare, he remains Zanu PF’s presidential candidate until the next scheduled congress in 2014. Zanu PF politburo members said yesterday discussion about the party’s presidential election candidate was a closed chapter. Zanu PF spokesperson Rugare Gumbo said Mugabe’s endorsement in Mutare still stood.

“President Mugabe’s endorsement was done last year — that endorsement still stands,” said Gumbo. “It is not on the agenda at the Bulawayo conference,” he said. Gumbo said key issues to be discussed at the conference in Bulawayo were the land reform programme, the indigenisation and empowerment programme and the humanitarian crisis obtaining in areas facing starvation such as some parts of Manicaland, Mwenezi, Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South, and Masvingo.

Party chair Simon Khaya Moyo said Zanu PF was silent because the issue was not up for debate. “I don’t know why there is a misunderstanding over the issue when our constitution is very clear that it is at congresses that we elect the leadership,” said Khaya Moyo.

“We did it in 2009 and our next congress is in 2014. At conferences, like the one we are going to have in Bulawayo, we review  what we have done over the year and those that want to reaffirm what the congress decided are free to do so. Whoever is elected president at the congress becomes the party’s candidate in the event of presidential elections in-between congresses,” Khaya Moyo said.

Provincial conferences will be held in two or three weeks and some provincial chairpersons interviewed said they would endorse Mugabe. Masvingo chairperson Lovemore Matuke said: “Our provincial conference is on November 22 and it is then that we will endorse the president. President Mugabe was elected at the congress and he is our candidate for the elections.”

“This issue has further fractured the cohesion of the group around Mugabe,” a source said. “Mugabe’s health and the succession turmoil are further complications. It’s a political powder keg around Mugabe.” Fence-mending meetings between Mugabe’s courtiers are however currently underway. Gono and others have been meeting to try to bridge their differences. Zimbabwe Independent