I haven’t been writing for some time; partly due to academic commitments and partly because I am working on a more comprehensive project beyond regular op-eds. However, recent political developments surrounding the push for President Mnangagwa’s third term have sparked public interest and debate.
Given the significance of this issue, I find it necessary to contribute my perspective in the public interest. Moreover, the question of succession within ZANU-PF and the post-Mnangagwa political landscape is central to Zimbabwe’s democratic future, an issue I analyse extensively in my upcoming publication.
This context makes it even more relevant for me to engage with the ongoing discourse and offer my insights on the matter.
Authoritarian regimes, including Mnangagwa’s, employ a complex mix of strategies to consolidate power and extend their rule beyond constitutional limits. These strategies include: (1)Coup-proofing (2) Co-optation (3) Repression (4) Propaganda (5) Diplomatic offensives.
Zimbabwe’s 2013 Constitution ostensibly limits the presidency to two five-year terms. However, as is common with authoritarian regimes, Mnangagwa and his allies are actively plotting to subvert these restrictions and secure a third term beyond the 2028 limit.
In this piece, I will focus specifically on coup-proofing; examining its effectiveness, potential outcomes, and the risks it poses.
Rather than providing an exhaustive analysis of all strategies, my goal is to contribute to critical discussion among pro-democracy advocates, equipping them with the awareness needed to anticipate and, where possible, counter these tactics effectively.
Coup proofing
Coup-proofing is a set of strategies used by authoritarian regimes to weaken the capacity of the military to overthrow the government.
According to Quinlivan (1999), coup-proofing involves measures such as purging disloyal officers, creating parallel security forces, and fostering inter-agency rivalries to prevent collusion against the ruling authority, often a dictator.
It may also include underfunding certain military units, stacking key positions with loyalists or kith and kin, and providing financial incentives to secure the military’s allegiance.
These tactics ensure that the military remains fragmented, dependent, and less likely to pose a direct threat to the regime.
Since coming to power through a military coup in November 2017, Mnangagwa has systematically worked to consolidate his grip on power, with a particular focus on controlling the army.
This is unsurprising, given that his ascension to the presidency was only possible because of the military’s intervention under then-General Constantino Chiwenga.
At the time, it was evident that real power lay with the military brass rather than the ruling ZANU-PF politicians who were simple bridesmaids for the military coup. However, the generals calculated that direct military rule would be unsustainable within the broader SADC regional political landscape.
Instead, they opted for a symbolic constitutional transition, allowing Mnangagwa to assume leadership of ZANU-PF and subsequently the presidency.
In return, Chiwenga and other key military figures were appointed to influential government positions, with Chiwenga himself becoming vice president.
There is credible anecdotal evidence that Mnangagwa had a gentleman’s agreement with Chiwenga that he would serve his term and handover power to him.
Since then, Mnangagwa has methodically reinforced his hold over the military. Whether by coincidence or design, a significant number of retired generals who played key roles in the 2017 coup have died between 2018 and 2023.
Additionally, Mnangagwa has orchestrated a series of strategic military appointments, ensuring that loyalists and members of his clan occupy crucial positions.
He has also reshuffled and demoted senior military officers, the most recent example being the removal of Zimbabwe National Army Commander Lt. General Anselmo Sanyatwe.
On March 25, 2025, Sanyatwe was demoted from his top military post and reassigned to the largely symbolic role of Minister of Sports and Youths.
This move is the latest in a long list of maneuvers aimed at coup-proofing Mnangagwa’s regime, ensuring that the military remains under his firm control and incapable of mounting a challenge to his rule as he seeks to get a third term.
Backbiting and murky waters
While coup-proofing measures can be effective to some extent, their greatest weakness lies in the unpredictable nature of coups. Coups are typically carried out in secrecy and often target leaders who lack popular legitimacy.
Mnangagwa has contested two elections, both of which have been marred by allegations of fraud and disputed results.
His grip on power has been maintained largely through military-backed coercion and the disintegration of the opposition, which has failed to mount a credible challenge to his rule.
Despite his efforts to consolidate power and maneuver for an unconstitutional third term, there is a real danger that these strategies could backfire. Coup-proofing can sometimes have the unintended effect of strengthening a different faction of coup plotters.
Those whom Mnangagwa appoints to strategic military positions are fully aware that his choices stem from fear and desperation. They recognize his political vulnerabilities and may seek to exploit them.
Historical patterns from other regions, particularly West Africa, suggest that leaders who rely on military loyalty are often betrayed by those closest to them. In late 2023, Gabon’s longtime ruler, Ali Bongo, was ousted in a coup led by his own relative.
This the stark reality that even those placed in powerful positions under the guise of loyalty can eventually turn against their benefactor. Given Mnangagwa’s increasingly precarious position, it is not inconceivable that his own inner circle, aware of his waning legitimacy and deep-seated vulnerabilities, could move to unseat him when the opportunity arises. The crocodile, as Mnangagwa is known in his circles, may drown in the murky waters of his own maneuvers!
What can democrats do?
A key question dominating ongoing social and political debates is: What can those fighting for democracy do in this complex and volatile situation? The answer is not straightforward, as the prevailing dynamics present complex challenges.
On one hand, factions within the system that seek to remove Mnangagwa are primarily motivated by self-interest rather than a commitment to democratic principles.
Their objective is not to advance democracy but to secure their own turn at wielding power, oppression and controlling the national purse.
On the other hand, Mnangagwa’s ambitions are clear, he seeks to entrench a family or clan-based dynasty that would extend his rule for as long as possible. Neither of these outcomes serves the interests of democracy and should be unreservedly rejected by pro-democracy forces.
What is urgently needed is the revival of solidarity, popular platforms to coordinate action, inform the masses, and mobilise resistance. There is a worrying lack of accessible, reliable information on why defending the constitution against Mnangagwa’s attempts to secure a third term is crucial, civil society has let the nation down on this role.
Beyond resisting constitutional manipulation, democratic forces must also prepare for a scenario where a coup does take place. In such an event, efforts should focus on preventing the installation of yet another dictator and instead pushing for a National Transitional Authority; a structured, inclusive process to restore democratic governance. This would help reset Zimbabwe on the path to democracy, which has been stalled since the inconclusive 2008 election and subsequent charades which have entrenched a defacto one-party state.
In summary, Mnangagwa’s coup-proofing maneuvers are expected as part of his broader strategy to consolidate power and undermine constitutional limits. However, for those committed to democracy, the focus must remain sharp: in the midst of political instability, opportunities may arise to reignite ambers of the struggle for genuine democratic change. The challenge is to be prepared, organised, and relentless in resisting authoritarian rule.
Pride Mkono is a political strategist and social justice activist. He writes here on his own capacity and can be contacted on [email protected]
