The Geza inferno and factionalism in ZANU-PF: Should citizens get involved?

The factionalism in ZANU-PF has moved to another level.

There are two factions that are locked in a vicious power struggle, one that is supporting President Emmerson Mnangagwa to tear the sacred constitution and rule to at least 2030 and the other which opposes the 2030 agenda and supports the ascendancy of Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.

Both factions need the support of the opposition to achieve and sanitize their agenda. The Mnangagwa faction is courting compromised “opposition” parliamentarians while the Chiwenga faction is courting the masses.

Both factions are fighting for their political interests, not for the masses, but the Chiwenga faction appears to be the lesser devil primarily because of its opposition to the 2030 agenda. It is unclear where the dice will eventually fall because both factions are comparatively powerful and unforgiving.

The situation is comparable to the intractable war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and a powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces. Zimbabwe may descend into a protracted civil war. But the major question is whether citizens should get involved in this factional fight?

The 2030 agenda is not about vision 2030.

Those who are pushing the 2030 agenda have not provided any solid arguments in support of the absurdity, especially considering that corruption, nepotism, incompetence, state capture, economic collapse, and the desecration of the constitution have amazingly deepened under Mnangagwa.

While the 2030 agenda largely remains a mystical delusion, there are two truths about it. The first truth is that it is not about fulfilling vision 2030, but about criminal, corrupt, and incompetent elements in ZANU that are seeking to protect their positions and plunder.

They know that if General Chiwenga gets into power, they will lose their positions, be prosecuted or exiled, if not something worse. They are simply using Mnangagwa as their political shield.

The second truth is that the 2030 agenda is not from the people, but from Mnangagwa himself.

If it was not from Mnangagwa, then Mnangagwa would have stopped it long ago because given the stakes that it brings with it, he would not allow the criminal and incompetent elements to use him and his family to protect their interests.

If Mnangagwa loses this fight, he and his family may end up in prison or exile, with their empire dismantled.

There are two dimensions to the factor that the 2030 agenda is from Mnangagwa himself. The first dimension is that Mnangagwa is not really seeking to extend his presidency beyond 2028. But he breached the “2017 agreement” that he should only rule for one term.

This made General Chiwenga and those who support him enraged. Mnangagwa is afraid that if General Chiwenga ascends to presidency, he will viciously pursue him and his family. He is therefore using the 2030 agenda as a snare against General Chiwenga.

He wants Chiwenga to err by doing and saying things which will be used to justify his disqualification from the race to succeed him. Mnangagwa wants to be succeeded by someone who will protect his interests, including promoting his children in politics as a return of the favor.

The second dimension is that power got to Mnangagwa’s head and he actually wants to extend his rule to at least 2030 and eventually make Zimbabwe a Mnangagwa fiefdom. He has already christened himself “Munhumutapa”.

If he goes down this path and succeeds, it will take decades for Zimbabwe to go back to the path of constitutional term limits. The 2030 agenda is not about vision 2030, but about protecting the interests of Mnangagwa and his corrupt, incompetent, and criminal elements in ZANU-PF.

They must be stopped by all Zimbabweans of goodwill. But does this make general Chiwenga and his faction saints?

Is the factionalism in ZANU-PF an internal affair?

The major difference between the factionalism which led to the removal of Mugabe in 2017 and the current one is that the former was largely a ZANU-PF affair but the later seeks to tear the heart of Zimbabwe’s constitutional order. This makes it a national affair and not a ZANU-PF affair.

In 2017, we knew that despite the outcome of the factionalism, the 2018 election will go ahead as constitutionally scheduled. However, we should understand that even the 2017 factionalism was not just a ZANU-PF affair because it led to the brazen violation of the constitution (the coup) which was subsequently endorsed by the judiciary, it deepened the militarization of Zimbabwe, and it brought the Mnangagwa curse to the entire nation.

Today, the whole nation is groaning because Mnangagwa is presiding over egregious corruption, nepotism, criminality, incompetence, state capture, economic collapse, and weaponization of state institutions. We should therefore be careful when we define what is and what is not an internal ZANU-PF affair.

It is wrong to regard the current factionalism as a ZANU-PF affair, it is not. ZANU-PF infiltrates, harasses, arbitrarily arrests and detains opposition leaders and supporters because it knows that whatever happens within the opposition is not internal because it has a bearing on the capacity of the opposition to wrestle power from it.

ZANU-PF also exploits any fissures in the opposition. Why then should the opposition consider what happens in ZANU-PF as internal affairs?

What is Comrade Geza saying, is he speaking for the masses?

The truth is that Cde Geza is fighting for the ascendancy of Vice President Constantino Chiwenga. Relatedly, he wants those who fought the liberation struggle to be put at the center of ZANU-PF. He is disgruntled that ZANU-PF has been taken over by what he calls criminals.

Indeed, it is, as always, a chinhu chedu (this is our thing) fight. It is not about the people, but about promoting shareholder and stakeholder interests. However, Cde Geza raised issues that resonate with some of the masses. He condemned the vile corruption and criminality, incompetence, nepotism, state capture, the mishandling of Gukurahundi, and violations of human rights and democratic freedoms, particularly against the opposition.

For me, the highlight of his press statements is where he stated that: “As we move forward, this is our plan. We have put enough mechanisms to make sure that the revolution will not be hijacked again. Going forward, all stakeholders of various parties and civic groups will be consulted on every next step we take. We want to liberate all, so this should never be viewed as a ZANU-PF internal fight.

It should never be converted into such. We are going to call for action soon. Stock up in preparation for a national shut down as we march to a free Zimbabwe. This was prophesied long back. The people of Zimbabwe, get ready for action. Be ready for action once you receive the signal.

We have called upon you (Mnangagwa) to step down peacefully and immediately but you have ignored. The people are going to force you to step down in line with the provisions of the constitution.

Once you go, we will allow for a transition to a democratic government where people’s voices are heard and their rights are respected”. The key highlight in this statement is the transition to a democratic government. This is what Zimbabwe needs.

Since independence, Zimbabwe has been ruled by vile dictators who use violence and fear to stay in power.  But the question is whether Cde Geza and his associates are sincere. What is clear is that based on history, many citizens do not trust that the promises will be implemented.

But Cde Geza and those behind him are part of the ZANU-PF system?

There are two fundamental factors that cannot be denied. The first factor is that Cde Geza and those around him have been and continue to be part of the ZANU-PF system. It is the ZANU-PF system which they are part of which took us to where we are today.

The second factor is that the issues which Cde Geza raised (vile corruption, incompetence, desecration of the values and aspirations of the liberation struggle, violating the constitution, violence, human rights abuses, state capture, etc) did not emerge yesterday.

Civil society, the opposition, and ordinary citizens have been raising them since the late 1980s. Why were the war veterans silent when ZANU-PF was desecrating the values and expectations of the liberation struggle; why did they choose to side with ZANU-PF instead of the masses for which the liberation war was fought; why did they get concerned with their wellbeing and not that of the masses considering that their well-being should never be considered as separable from that of the masses; why did they remain silent when corruption rose to conscience-wrenching levels, why did they remain silent when ZANU-PF was flagrantly violating the rights for which the war was fought, and why did some of them participate in the violations of human rights?

These questions are fundamental. They cannot be dismissed because Cde Geza has said some things which are appealing to the masses. He and his colleagues must boldly and sincerely face these questions. Of course, we know that human beings are fallible. They are bound to make mistakes.

After his ouster from power, Robert Mugabe acknowledged that ZANU-PF has made some mistakes, especially in respect of violence against the opposition. But we must be clear. There are things that cannot be simply regarded as mistakes.

Presiding over Gukurahundi, vile corruption, a derelict health delivery system, nepotism, legendary incompetency, mass killings of political opponents, massive abuses of human rights, capture and weaponization of state institutions, and egregious rigging of elections cannot be defined as mistakes.

We cannot regard heinous crimes as mistakes because mistakes can be simply acknowledged, but heinous crimes have to be comprehensively addressed and uprooted from our society. It is like claiming that colonialism, slave trade, and apartheid were mistakes, they were not.

If the intention of Cde Geza and associates is to address and uproot the vile governance in Zimbabwe, then the citizens must support them, but it is their responsibility to show that they must be trusted by the masses.

But the problem is not Mnangagwa and the criminals, it is systemic.

The press statements by Cde Geza and associates emphasize that Mnangagwa and a few criminals around him are the problem and that the solution is to remove them from power. But the truth is that ZANU-PF as a system is wholly rotten.

The solution is not to remove a few elements from the system and bring elements that have been part of the system but regard them as “new”. We, as citizens, must not be naively excited by the possibility of removing Mnangagwa and crowning a “new” president.

We have learnt from the removal of Mugabe that the problem is not individuals in ZANU-PF, but the entire ZANU-PF as a system. We must always be conscious that we may remove Mnangagwa but end up in the worst of situations just as we removed Mugabe and ended up with the Mnangagwa curse.

We may even end up wishing if we had allowed the 2030 agenda to succeed. Look at the ruins that Libya has become. Look at the situation in Sudan today. We must always understand that the 2017 coup is a long and entitled one, it will always seek to protect its interests.

Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o says that “when a bird in flight gets tired, it will land on any tree”. This is what happened in 2017 when citizens naively got involved in the removal of Mugabe.

We should never land on the same tree that we landed on in 2017, regardless of how desperate for change we are. We must therefore be very cautious, organized, and strategic.

Should citizens get involved, then?

The most difficult question regarding the current factionalism in ZANU-PF is whether citizens should be involved. We should acknowledge that defining what constitutes “involvement” is difficult because getting actively involved or refraining from active involvement are the same: involvement.

One is active and the other is passive, but they both work in favor of different outcomes. It is compared to a voter who votes and another one who refrains from voting for one reason or another. Refraining from voting is actually a way of voting.

There are primarily two views regarding whether citizens should be involved. The first view, based on past experiences and the vile nature of ZANU-PF, particularly the events of 2017 and their aftermath, is that citizens must not side with the Geza faction because ZANU-PF simply wants to use and discard them.

Within this view, there are those who believe that all opposition forces must unite and take advantage of the factionalism in ZANU-PF without siding with either of the factions. This view was articulated by Dr Tadini Masaya of the United Zimbabwe Alliance (UZA) during a twitter space.

He argued that the broader opposition movement must take advantage of the factionalism in ZANU-PF by creating alternative centers of power with the agenda to remove it from power or to negotiate with the faction that will emerge victorious.

This is the most strategic option but the challenge is that the opposition is currently weak and disoriented. The eloquent Elizabeth Valerio, the President of UZA, while speaking to the media during one of the party’s Community Hall Initiatives, said that: “We want to put it on record that no one wants 2030…As UZA, we are going to make sure that the voice of the citizens is on record, this factional fight we are not going to get involved in it”.

The second view is that citizens must support the Geza faction and act on “the signal”. There are two parts to this view. The first is that citizens should be involved without much concern about the outcome of the process.

The idea is that the preeminent goal should be to remove Mnangagwa and then think about what to do next. The other view is that citizens should side with the Geza faction, but with extreme caution.

They must have clear demands and agreements before getting involved in order to avoid being shortchanged later. This is the most popular view going by the polls and views shared at Gerrard Anko Ged Belts @MacBelts twitter spaces.

Coming to my analysis of this matter. I believe that the question of whether citizens should be involved or not should be put into context. Elections have failed and they are unlikely to deliver change in the near future. The most recent elections, the 2018 and the 2023 ones, were brazenly rigged.

SADC condemned the farcical 2023 election. We are approaching the 2028 election but there are no reforms, even superficial ones that have been implemented. If the 2028 election goes ahead, ZANU-PF will be declared the winner. It therefore means that even if the 2030 agenda is stopped, it does not change anything for the opposition.

The opposition has not been able to mount formidable responses to the rigging of elections, corruption, and the 2030 agenda. In its current form, the opposition is weak and disoriented. It has not provided leadership during critical moments. It appears that the current factionalism in ZANU-PF is the only immediate opportunity for Zimbabweans to try and change the direction of the country.

My view is that change is likely to come to Zimbabwe if the opposition is capable of exploiting the fissures within ZANU-PF than it is likely to come through elections. For this reason, I believe that citizens must be involved, but under a solid, not ragtag leadership.

A leadership that is capable of putting foolproof mechanisms to ensure that the views and aspirations of citizens will be respected. What is happening in ZANU-PF is not an internal matter. It affects us all. We should try everything we can to direct it towards the destination that we want.

We may fail, but at least we have nothing to lose if we try than if we watch from the terraces. Yes, some can make reference to 2017. But remember that 2017 came as a storm. Even Mugabe himself did not see it coming. There was little time for the opposition to be organized.

But this time around, we all see what is coming and we have enough time to organize ourselves and put up a formidable fight. We can improve from the lessons of 2017. We cannot continue to mourn and agonize.

We have to exercise our agency as the opposition and try to shape the direction of our country. Zimbabwe is for us all, it does not belong to ZANU-PF. The question is not whether citizens should be involved or not, but how they should be involved and to what end.

Dr Moses Tofa is a Research Leader, political analyst, and self-critical Pan-Africanist. He holds a PhD in Politics from the University of Johannesburg and a PhD in Conflict Studies from the University of Kwa-Zulu Natal. He is also an Investigator at the University of Andes, Colombia. He is the founder of the Zimbabwe Opposition Monitoring and Support Group (ZOMSG). He writes in his capacity. Reachable at [email protected], Follow him on twitter handle: @DrDrMTofa.