South Africa elections: ANC on course to lose majority, partial results suggest

South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), is on course to lose its majority in parliament for the first time since it came to power 30 years ago, partial results from Thursday’s parliamentary election suggest.

With results from around 43% voting districts counted so far, the ANC is leading with 43%, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 24%.

Both the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) of former President Jacob Zuma are on around 10%.

Final results are expected over the weekend.

Many voters blame the ANC for the high levels of corruption, crime and unemployment in the country.

The respected Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the News24 website have projected that the party’s final vote could be around 42%, a big drop from the 57% it obtained in the 2019 election.

This would force it go into a coalition with one or more of the other parties in order to form a majority in parliament.

The DA has liberal economic policies, while both the EFF and MK favour more state intervention and nationalisation, so the choice of partner would make a huge difference to South Africa’s future direction.

It is unclear whether President Cyril Ramaphosa will remain in power, as he could come under pressure from the ANC to resign if the party gets less than 45% of the final vote, said Prof William Gumede, chairman of the non-profit Democracy Works Foundation.

“The ANC could turn him into a scapegoat, and a faction within the party could push for him to be replaced by his deputy, Paul Mashatile. The EFF and MK are also likely to demand his resignation before agreeing to any coalition with the ANC,” Prof Gumede told the BBC.

South Africans do not directly vote for a president. Instead they vote for members of parliament who will then go on to elect the president.

The initial results show that the ANC is suffering heavy losses to MK, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, where Mr Zuma’s party has been leading with 43% of the vote to the ANC’s 21%.

Mr Zuma caused a major shock when he announced in December that he was ditching the ANC to campaign for MK.

KwaZulu-Natal is the home region of Mr Zuma, and the province with the second-highest number of votes, making it crucial in determining whether the ANC retains its parliamentary majority.

Although Mr Zuma has been barred from running for parliament because of a conviction for contempt of court, his name still appeared on the ballot paper as MK leader.

If MK wins KwaZulu-Natal, it would be a “major upset” and herald the “potential decimation” of the ANC in the province, Prof Gumede said.

The ANC also risks losing its majority in the economic heartland of Gauteng, where the party currently has 36% to the DA’s 29%.

Wednesday’s election saw long lines of voters outside polling stations late into the night across the country. BBC News