El Niño threatens future of power generation in Zimbabwe and Zambia

The Zambezi River is experiencing a worrisome dry spell, resulting in the uncertainty of the future of power generation in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), responsible for managing the river’s resources for the two countries, said it is closely monitoring the situation.

At the Chavuma gauging station, water flow peaked in January but had since receded significantly compared to last year. Victoria Falls, a majestic symbol of the river’s power, echoed the sentiment with lower water flow.

Lake Kariba, a crucial water reservoir, painted a similar picture. While rising slightly in January, its level began dropping due to low inflows and scarce rainfall. Compared to last year, the lake held considerably less usable water.

The culprit behind this predicament is El Niño, a global weather phenomenon causing below-average rainfall in the Kariba catchment area. Forecasts predicted this trend to continue, raising concerns for the remainder of the rainy season.

Despite the grim outlook, the ZRA maintained the water allocation for power generation at Kariba Dam, allowing for a combined average power production.

However, this allocation is subject to change based on a quarterly review, taking into account the actual rainfall performance and lake inflows.

The Authority emphasized the need for the power utilities, ZESCO and ZPC/KHPC, to strictly adhere to their water allocation to ensure sustainable power generation throughout the year.

With the Zambezi inflows on track to be some of the lowest on record, responsible water management is crucial.

“Given that the outcome of the rainfall forecast is generally below normal, the Authority has maintained the 16 BCM water allocation for the year 2024 providing for combined annual average power production of 428MW, shared equally.

“The water allocation of 8 BCM per power utility, translates into an average power production of 214MW per Utility to the end of March 2024 when the 1st Quarter 2024 hydrological review falls due as per standing operational framework for Kariba dam reservoir operations.

“The hydrological review will among other factors take into consideration the actual performance of the 2023/2024 rainfall season and the resulting inflows into the lake over the first quarter of the year 2024.

“The results of the hydrological simulations could result in an increment, reduction or the keeping of the prevailing 2024 water allocation as is.

“The Authority will continue monitoring the hydrometeorological performance of the Kariba Catchment as evolving under the prevailing El Niño climate conditions and keep the public informed of any new positive or negative developments.

“Given that the Kariba inflows are so far below average, with a possibility of registering as one of the lowest on record, the Power Utilities have been advised to maintain strict adherence to their respective water allocation thresholds to sustain generation to the end of the year,” the Authority said.

The Zambezi River Authority said it remains vigilant, monitoring the evolving situation and keeping the public informed. The future of power generation in the region hinges on the whims of the weather and responsible water management practices.