By Conrad Nyamutata
Speaking to the BBC last week, information minister Jonathan Moyo sought to paint an unproblematic picture after President Robert Mugabe has departed the political scene.
Power has a soporific effect that blinds us to the future. Societies that later plunged into conflict had rulers who refused to see or never saw circumstances changing.
The romantic post-Mugabe picture Moyo paints ignores the fact that Zimbabwe has, over the years, become a bitterly-divided society.
While Mugabe — justifying his extended stay — said he wanted to heal rifts within his party, his legacy could be that of a man who left a society with deep intraparty, interparty and even tribal fault lines.
When one adds decades of grinding poverty, it is facetious to simply ignore the potential for disaster after Mugabe. Zimbabwe could be sleepwalking into an era of instability, more serious than we have witnessed so far.
The only reason that these political and social crevices have not expressed themselves in a destructive fashion is that Mugabe has benefitted from the synergistic effects of repression and reverence.
Mugabe has been adept at wheeling out the state’s coercive apparatus, at times in brutal fashion, at the slightest hint of dissent. The effect of this has been a pervading sense of fear.
One can also not deny the fact that Mugabe enjoys widespread reverence, particularly within his party. The people we describe as bootlickers or sycophants epitomise this sense of respect.
This reverence derives principally from his liberation war credentials, seminal rulership after independence and personal charisma.
Put together, the synergistic effects of these two states of mind — fear and respect — on our society become easy to see. If you add fear and respect, you produce an inactive society, at least in terms of potential for serious rebellion.
People are usually reticent to rebel against those they fear or and respect. It is the psychology of power. These two states of mind, combined, have had a paralysing effect to social action. I, therefore, call this Zimbabwe’s “docility equation”.
While Zimbabwe is not entirely stable, Mugabe has marshalled effectively both fear and respect to prevent protracted deadly insurrection.
The question then is — is there anyone else within the ranks of Zanu PF who can benefit from the docility equation after Mugabe?
It does not seem so. Looking at his potential successors, it is difficult to see anyone who can generate both fear and respect to as good effect as Mugabe has done.
Part of this is because of unchangeable historical reality. The successor would not, of course, have the respect that comes with being the first leader of a country.
Further, while his potential successors would have liberation war backgrounds, none in his party has any charisma that generates a sense of awe and reverence he has enjoyed.
The docility equation has so far worked when only both states of mind — fear and respect — have had combinational paralysing effect, not individually.
One of his touted successors, Emmerson Mnangagwa, known as Ngwena (crocodile), has managed to generate fear with his Gukurahundi background. Recently, he boasted about his training to kill.
But he has zero charisma; he is not a figure that mesmerises crowds to generate widespread admiration and reverence. Crocodiles are, in any case, unappealing creatures.
The problem with charisma is that it is not transferable. For Mnangagwa, fear alone, as half of the docility equation, might not have the paralysing effect.
In any case, another fear-inducing authoritarian could just be one too many for Zimbabweans.
It is for this reason that the picture Moyo paints, post-Mugabe, is too romantic.
Zanu PF has so far benefited from a character who has combined both unique historical and personal characteristics.
With a bitterly-divided society, assuming Zanu PF is ruling, unless it radically alters Zimbabweans’ social conditions, political life after Mugabe could be a whole lot different.
Zimbabwe could be sleep-walking into more an unstable society. Zanu PF will not be able to rely on the docility equation because only Mugabe could benefit from it. Daily News
