Joyce Mujuru political career almost over

By Jacob Nkiwane

A liberation and political journey that began more than forty years ago is slowly coming to an end for Joyce Mujuru. The political landscape is changing. Political vultures are circling around her and they are sensing a kill. She is cornered from all angles.

The old rivalry between her and Mnangagwa is coming to a photo finish. The limelight is shifting. Tables are turning.

Over the years, Emmerson Mnangagwa waited patiently for his turn only to be frustrated constantly by Joyce Mujuru with the help of her late husband Solomon Mujuru. In 2004, Mnangagwa had done his homework well, only to see his vice presidential ambitions go up in smoke.

Joyce Mujuru was protected and elevated to the vice presidency on a gender ticket. Mnangagwa supporters were heavily reprimanded.

The majority of provincial party leadership who attended the infamous Tsholotsho meeting were suspended from the party. Some went into political oblivion and never recovered. Since then, Mnangagwa’s presidential horizon has been changing and at times vanishing.

Then came the 2007 coup allegations in which Mnangagwa was fingered as part of the plan. Although he vehemently denied the allegations, with no proof linking him to the coup, his image was battered. He was projected as a power hungry party cadre who was prepared to go to any lengths to assume power.

Mnangagwa picked up the pieces and schemed his way back on track. He slowly assembled a strong contingent of loyalists in most provinces and districts. By 2012, the majority of ZANU PF’s District Coordinating Committees (DCCs) were headed by cadres loyal to Mnangagwa.

Joyce Mujuru realised the scheme and persuaded the politburo to dismantle all DCCs citing internecine factionalism which had taken centre stage. As before, Mnangagwa found himself on the losing end of the political spectrum.

After missing on the DCCs opportunity, Mnangagwa being a political crocodile, went back to the pool to lie low and wait for the next opportunity to pounce again. One has to look at history to admit the man is blessed with an abundance of patience.

The new constitution provided a welcome relief for Mnangagwa in the form of a clause providing for Presidential takeover in the event of death, retirement or incapacitation of a sitting President.

With fear of reprisal and prosecution which he openly confessed, President Mugabe’s best bet and peace of mind in retirement lies in passing the baton to Mnangagwa.

Although both Mnangagwa and Mujuru are liberation war veterans, Mnangagwa has more security credentials due to his previous cabinet portfolios as Minister of both State Security and Defence. He appears to be enjoying a close working relationship with the current defence forces commander Constantine Chiwenga and other security chiefs.

As for Joyce Mujuru, her camp is slowly disintegrating. The death of her husband was a huge setback both in personal and political terms. Solomon Mujuru was a decorated liberation war commander who commanded respect within the security ranks.

Before his death, he leveraged his political capital for the benefit of his wife. Since his death, Joyce Mujuru has been left to navigate the treacherous terrains alone. No one knows for certain whether the death of Solomon Mujuru had anything to do with power dynamics within ZANU PF.

The recent death of Chindori Chininga, a rising liberal and moderate from her camp, added to the long list of her lieutenants falling in battle. Countrywide, her supporters did not fare well in recent party primaries which were dominated by Mnangagwa loyalists.

In Manicaland, Didymus Mutasa is hanging by a thread whilst Mnangagwa loyalists are gaining ground. Within her own backyard of Mashonaland Central, Mujuru is facing challenges from Saviour Kasukuwere who is rumoured to belong to Mnangagwa camp.

On the gender platform, Mujuru is facing stiff competition from Oppah Muchinguri who hails from Manicaland and believed to be sympathetic to Mnangagwa. Like Mujuru, Muchinguri has a liberation history in addition to a rich political profile of her own.

Since independence, Manicaland is probably the biggest province which did not have a chance to occupy the vice presidency.

It is reasonable to assert that tribal political dynamics favour Oppah Muchinguri ahead of Joyce Mujuru should Mugabe win the elections and hands over the presidency to Mnangagwa.

Mujuru’s chances of holding on to the vice Presidency are very slim. Mnangagwa is more inclined to placate and please Oppah Muchinguri who worked hard for his ascendancy, especially as she is from Manicaland which has never tasted the presidency.

In addition to possible mollification from Mnangagwa, Oppah Muchinguri has the support of the influential Women’s League, an important grouping within the traditional power dynamics of the party.

There are some within the party such as Didymus Mutasa who openly argued that Mnangagwa is junior to Mujuru and therefore far behind in terms of party hierarchy. Whilst such arguments may be correct at face value, the opposite is true.

Mnangagwa entered politics around 1962 beginning as a ZAPU cadre before the formation of ZANU in 1964 whilst Mujuru started her liberation activism around 1972.

Whilst Mujuru was a foot soldier, Mnangagwa was occupying a senior position during the liberation struggle, having participated in the battlefields before his incarceration. When one considers party history, Mnangagwa is therefore senior to Mujuru in many ways.

But does she have any chances of survival? As a member of parliament, her chances of survival are very high as she commands a significant following within her province particularly her constituency.

Ironically, her survival both within the party and beyond parliament hinges on Tsvangirai winning the next presidential elections. That argument is premised on two reasons.

The first reasoning is that a Tsvangirai win will force ZANU PF to adopt an all-inclusive approach as the only way of fighting back to regain lost ground. Party hardliners and moderates alike will have to work together and strive to re-attack as a united force.

The second reasoning is that Tsvangirai will inherit a sharply divided country. In order to pacify opposing forces particularly from ZANU PF, he will likely extend a handful of cabinet posts to moderate ZANU PF members. It is hard to imagine and identify any influential moderates within ZANU PF whose list excludes Joyce Mujuru.

Whilst such a suggestion appears far-fetched considering the long held animosity between the two parties, Tsvangirai will not be the first to do so. In 1994, Nelson Mandela the newly elected leader of South Africa included members of F.W Clerk’s National Party in his cabinet. Elsewhere, US President Barak Obama appointed a number of Republicans notably Robert Gates as Defence secretary.

The good news is that a Mugabe win is very unlikely under normal circumstances. The situation on the ground is pointing to an overwhelming win by Tsvangirai and his MDCT.

Although opinion polls conducted a couple of years back pointed to an increase in ZANU PF support, current opinion markers indicate an overwhelming majority support for Tsvangirai. Without a Tsvangirai win, Joyce Mujuru’s political career is certainly over.

Jacob Nkiwane can be contacted on [email protected]