Sanctions: Beware Zanu PF crocodile tears

By Alex Magaisa

A friend was having trouble with his little boy. Each time he chose an item for him, the little one always chose the other. If he chose a blue toy, the boy insisted on the red alternative. I suppose little boys derive pleasure from rebelling against their dads.

So he figured he had to apply the law of opposites. That meant, whenever he preferred red, he would instead choose blue and the boy, naturally would pick red. My friend would feign frustration and unhappiness at the boy’s choice. The boy would claim victory and that pleased him no end.

He did not realise the trick his dad was playing on him. He did not know that dad’s tears were in fact tears of a crocodile, the mythical image being that of a crocodile that sheds tears whilst consuming its prey. Dad in fact was happy. And the boy was happy.

Everyone was happy. Or so it seemed. This may be a simple story of father and son playing games but it bears some resonance with some of the power games I see at play in Zimbabwe. The difference is that one is about simple choices between father and son but the other is a matter with grave consequences for a whole nation.

I have observed with interest and concern at the controversial issue of
sanctions and wonder whether there is the law of opposites at play here on a
grander scale. I record here my observations and why I think things may not be as simple as they appear at first sight.

It is in this context that I thought I would venture to offer a slightly different, if controversial, opinion to the issue of sanctions and how it has been handled so far. In this regard, I argue that far from being a handicap, the issue of sanctions has become a piece of arsenal in the hands of those against whom they have been targeted, in general Zanu PF as a party.

The issue is actually more important to Zanu PF’s politics of survival than
it appears at first sight. The manner in which the Old Party has handled the sanctions issue is to me yet another illustration of its survival instincts; an uncanny ability to manipulate to its advantage what on a cursory look appears to be a weakness.

To my mind, contrary to popular opinion, the removal of sanctions does not strengthen Zanu PF. Rather, it removes one and the last key grounds upon which the Zanu PF has rested its resistance to the implementation of the Global Political Agreement.

To that extent, the removal of sanctions works to weaken the ground upon
which it stands against the democratisation agenda set forth in the GPA. So why then, one is perfectly entitled to ask, does Zanu PF howl so loudly about the removal sanctions? Is this not sufficient indication that they are actually bothered by the sanctions; that arguably the sanctions are working?

This is where, to my mind, the Old Party’s tricks are at play, in a way that is not immediately apparent. It seems to me that they are tears indeed, but that they are tears of a crocodile.

The howls present a picture of a party that is really bothered by the sanctions; of individuals who have been severely inconvenienced by this
circumstance. That is exactly what they want everyone to believe, not
necessarily because it’s correct, but because it suits the broader strategy
in the wider context of the political power games.

They want people, especially opponents, to believe that the matter of
sanctions affects them badly. Indeed, evidence of public opinion suggests that most people do. And because many people believe they have a moral victory against Zanu PF, they are more inclined to support the maintenance of sanctions.

It is the law of opposites at play, similar to the law of opposites in the little story of father and son described in the preamble to this piece. But far from being a blow to Zanu PF, it is actually an opportunity in the political power game. How then is this so?

Zanu PF has always insisted that sanctions must be removed first before
progressing to the other core issues in the GPA. Indeed, the issue has been re-ignited in recent weeks, enabling Zanu PF to shift blame to the MDC-T for allegedly influencing the placement of sanctions and therefore arguing that it has the power to get them removed.

As long as sanctions remain, Zanu PF will always employ the same old
argument. Between the removal of sanctions and implementing the GPA to
facilitate a free and fair election, it is arguable that it is the latter that worries Zanu PF more than the former.

Popular opinion tends to place weight on the “nuisance” or ’embarrassment” value of the sanctions, i.e. that it stops the targeted ones from travelling to places where they are banned.

It is doubtful however that those impediments really bother them as is often made out. Certainly, sanctions have not stopped them from travelling and spending taxpayers’ funds, sometimes in obscene ways be it in Hong Kong or
Kuala Lumpur.

They have not stopped the targeted from doing what concerns them most — the acquisition of wealth, by whatever means available. They are not worse off than they were before the sanctions were imposed. Instead, they have got wealthier, occupying an island of abundance in a sea of desperate poverty.

The gap between the rich and poor has in fact grown wider in the last 10 years. So, I am reluctant to believe that sanctions have actually bothered the targeted as is often made out. There is no clear evidence available that tells how much, if any of the assets belonging to the targeted have actually been frozen.

It is probable that most of this wealth is held in low-tax offshore jurisdictions that are havens for the wealthy, and there, the hand of the
sanctions regime has limited reach. So apart from the embarrassment value, sanctions have probably not bothered Zanu PF leaders as is often suggested.

Perhaps the best way to appreciate the trickery is to consider the issue through another set of lens. Suppose the sanctions they appear to dislike are actually removed. It is difficult to imagine any other argument that Zanu PF would pull out of the proverbial hat to avoid implementing the remaining aspects of the GPA.

So in light of that you have to ask further: if the removal of sanctions should compel Zanu PF to implement the GPA and related aspects of governance, is it really in Zanu PF’s interests to have the sanctions removed?

To my mind, they are less interested in the removal of sanctions than they are with the avoidance of measures to implement the GPA. For as long as the sanctions issue remains top of the agenda, there have reason to resist the
implementation. Of course they want the more gullible to believe that the country’s economic malaise is due solely to sanctions. But they are not stupid enough to think people really believe them.

However, it is a convenient line to take so they do use it even if they themselves do not believe it. But most of all, the sanctions issue provides a convenient excuse for not meeting their part of the bargain, a circumstance that enables them to avoid the democratisation process under which survival would be most challenging.

Zanu PF knows that for as long as the sanctions issue remains on the table, it is a convenient veil to hide behind and avoid the necessary reforms needed to take the country to the next level.

The irony is that by thinking and believing that Zanu PF leaders are hurt by
sanctions, opponents insist that they remain — thereby keeping the issue on
the table. What appears like a weakness may in fact be a source of strength
for Zanu PF. They may not be the best governors of the country in the eyes of many people but they are not stupid.

The tragedy in this situation is that many people actually believe Zanu PF’s tears over sanctions without realising that they are probably witnessing crocodile tears.

Alex Magaisa is based at Kent Law School, University of Kent at Canterbury and can be contacted at  [email protected]