Imperatives of the ‘cool coup’ and a transition in Zimbabwe

By Dr Tapiwa Shumba

It is not rocket science that a transition from the Mugabe era was imminent considering his advanced age. When and how it would happen remained difficult to predict.

Many permutations have been made from possible ‘blood bath’ to ‘dog eat dog’ or ‘endless civil war’. The bottom line is that predictions painted an Armageddon.

There is no doubt, as it has become abundantly clear, that President Mugabe’s game plan was and remains to die in office. It cannot be overlooked that his sudden departure from the scene would plunge the country into uncertainty and potential violent conflict.

What the ZDF has managed to do up to this stage is ‘step in’ to close the vacuum that was leading to uncertainty. Let there be no suggestion that this author is celebrating a coup d’etat. That is far from the truth.

However, if this ends well, this creates a new concept of an acceptable ‘cool coup’, potentially to be defined as a measure by the national defence forces to pacify a potentially violent transition when the sitting president has become evidently incapacitated but refusing to vacate his position.

How does the army remain the defence force and stay clear from staging a coup under these circumstances? What should the army bosses do to be celebrated as heroes and true professionals than ‘treasonous’ and villainous coup plotters.

The following four imperatives must be adhered to. Firstly, this ‘stepping in’ must be swift and should not last for more than 7 days before a clear roadmap is outlined. Secondly, they must ensure that civilians continue to go on about their business without unnecessary curfew. Thirdly, no violence must be used and people must not be harassed, injured or killed. Finally, an inclusive National Transitional Authority must be put in place with a roadmap to elections in 5 years.

For this to remain a ‘cool coup’, it must have a clear plan and a swift strategy for a return to normalcy. A clear strategy includes making it a point that the army returns to the barracks in a few days time and handover the country back to civilian authority.

The longer they take without an exit strategy, the closer this will move towards a ‘treasonous coup’ which will be frowned upon by Zimbabweans, SADC, AU and the international community who have been supportive thus far.

If this ‘stepping in’ is in line with the defence forces mandate to ‘protect citizens’ as outlined by the Constitution, then the army should make sure that it does not interfere with people’s errands. Zimbabweans are peace-loving and less involved people, which is partly also why they are less bothered by what is happening around them.

A coup d’tetat proper, generally comes with violence. Without violence, the army would have managed to stage something unprecedented. They have managed to do that so far, firstly by ensuring President Mugabe is unharmed and remains the president.

They have done well not to use violence. This in itself shows how our army is led by educated and intelligent people with cool heads, thus far. The consequences of harming a President and violence are well-documented.

A no violence approach also applies to those perceived to be ‘criminals’. As long as no one has tried to resist the situation, there is no need to round up anyone and arrest people without trial. This applies to Minister Chombo, Prof Jonathan Moyo et al.

The army must not be distracted but simply focus on ensuring there is a transitional civilian authority that will deal with these issues. These people remain citizens and their rights must be protected. It is not in the domain of the army to stoop as low as arresting a few individuals and detaining them without trial unless they resist. This will also create endless problems for the future.

On the National Transitional Authority, the army must leave that to negotiators from the different sections of our society. However, to cure the constitutional requirements, three approaches can be employed. Firstly, President Mugabe can be asked to resign – although it is difficult to see him agreeing to step down.

Secondly, parliament can be convened to impeach the President. The third and easier route is to convene the ZANU-PF politburo and recall the president. All these options have a degree of constitutional sanity. What it means under the current Constitution is that ZANU-PF will have to elect a leader to replace President Mugabe.

The elected leader may very well be VP Mnangagwa as it is a clear route to stability. President Mnangagwa should then move swiftly to negotiate and organise a transitional government that will take the country though a 5 year period of robust political, social and economic reform before any elections can be held.

The reforms must include reforming the army and placing it back under total civilian authority. Of course, it must be expected that key and talented opposition figures such as Tendai Biti, Nelson Chamisa et al will be part of this transitional government regardless of their political affiliations. The transitional authority must be as free as possible and last as long as is necessary to bring stability.

If ZDF Commander Constantino Chiwenga and his team pull this off in this manner, they deserve respect and a Nobel Peace prize than any manner of denigration and vilification.

This is a masterstroke. They would have shown an unmatchable degree of wisdom, ingenuity and intellect that has escaped many defence forces in the world. The selflessness will be remembered in history just as much as the liberation war is revered.

Dr Tapiwa Shumba writes in his personal capacity.