ZANU-PF’s fierce succession battles present serious dangers to the nation on the one hand and enormous, unconventional opportunities to those who are seeking democratic change in Zimbabwe on the other hand.
The hazards include the authoritarian amendment of the constitution to pursue narrow political interests, the erosion of what remains of the constitutional order, the closure of the civic space, a deepening political and economic crisis characterized by widespread political violence, and in the worst-case scenario, a civil strife.
The opportunities include the space for democratic forces to demand political reforms and in the best-case scenario, a National Transitional Authority.
It is therefore important that each time that ZANU-PF goes through a fierce succession battle, the democratic forces are ready and able to avert the dangers and harvest the opportunities of the moment.
The gnashing of teeth that came to ZANU-PF in 2017, but Zimbabwe missed the moment.
In November 2017, the army removed President Robert Mugabe from power following a nasty succession battle in ZANU-PF. Aware that the regional and international communities do not accept a military coup, the army sought the support of the opposition, civil society, and the masses to sanitize it.
Indeed, the opposition sanitized the coup by participating in the processes that led to the removal of President Mugabe, particularly the massive protests and the impeachment process.
Opposition leaders joyfully attended the inauguration of President Mnangagwa under the hope that they would be included in the “new administration” through a coalition government, but it did not happen.
When asked whether the removal of Mugabe was a coup, former Prime Minister and opposition stalwart, Morgan Tsvangirai, said that the army’s intervention was timely and supported by the people, that the people saw it as desirable because they had wanted Mugabe out of power for many years, that the end justified the means, and that it was “a new birth”, “a new thing”, and a memorable occasion comparable to 1980.
The current opposition leader, Nelson Chamisa, described the coup as “a miraculous transition” birthed by a combined effort from the military, the citizens, and the parliament.
The opposition’s endorsement of the coup was not just an honest miscalculation that a new dispensation was coming, but it was opportunistic. The coup did not present any serious dangers to the nation.
Instead, it presented the democratic forces with a huge opportunity to demand justice and change, particularly electoral reforms. It remains tragic that Zimbabwe squandered such an opportunity because the opposition, civil society, and the masses were unprepared to seize the moment.
The gnashing of teeth is coming to ZANU-PF, once again.
Zimbabwe’s current President, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, rose to the presidency in November 2017 following the unceremonious removal of President Robert Mugabe by the army after 37 years of authoritarian rule.
Mnangagwa was subsequently elected during the 2018 and 2023 elections. Both of them produced disputed outcomes because of brazen electoral manipulations.
Electoral observer missions, particularly SADC, strongly condemned the 2023 election, but the self-seeking and fractured opposition dismally failed to take advantage of such a rare verdict. Under Zimbabwe’s constitution, a President can only serve a maximum of two five-year terms.
President Mnangagwa will therefore complete his second and last term in 2028. However, there is a disdainful move by a significant section of ZANU-PF and some sections within the broader Zimbabwean society, including self-seeking traditional and religious leaders and groups, to keep him in power beyond 2028 under the slogan that “2030, ED anenge achitonga” (ED will be the President in 2030).
It is unclear whether some regional and international actors are supporting this absurdity. Those who support this unconstitutional agenda are making false claims that President Mnangagwa has delivered the expectations of the masses and that he must remain in power to achieve Vision 2030 and “take Zimbabwe to the promised land”.
President Mnangagwa is said to be seeking to achieve the nefarious term extension agenda by either removing the presidential term limit from the constitution or extending the Presidential term from 5 to 7 years.
Either way, he faces a monstrous task because the constitution requires a term limit extension to be subjected to a national referendum.
If it achieves a “yes” vote in the referendum, the incumbent office-bearer cannot benefit. Section 328 (7) says that “Notwithstanding any other provision of this section, an amendment to a term-limit provision, the effect of which is to extend the length of time that a person may hold or occupy any public office, does not apply to any person who held or occupied that office, or an equivalent office, at any time before the amendment”.
This effectively means that any extension of President Mnangagwa’s term of office can only be achieved through a treasonous, conscience-wrenching, and ignominious violation of the constitution.
However, ZANU-PF is notorious for brazenly violating the constitution and other laws of the land. The unconstitutional call for President Mnangagwa to remain in office until 2030 at the least started as a joke, but it has become more and more serious.
Some high-ranking ZANU-PF leaders, including Vice President Kembo Mohadi, have openly made this call. We are yet to know whether they support it genuinely because, in the uncharted waters of succession politics, people can put on deceitful faces, either strategically or reluctantly, as they seek self-preservation.
It is unclear whether the call originated from Mnangagwa himself or other sections of ZANU-PF. But what is clear is that Mnangagwa is supportive of the call. He has never rebuked those who are making it. In fact, at one point during a rally, he threatened and forced cabinet ministers to chant the “2030, ED anenge achitonga” slogan.
However, on 04 July 2024, speaking during the commissioning of a fruit and water processing plant at Mutare Teacher’s College, Mnangagwa claimed that he would go and rest after completing his second and final term in 2028.
But then, history has taught us not to trust such statements from politicians. Robert Mugabe made such claims, only for him to continue contesting elections until the army removed him from power.
In Rwanda, Paul Kagame contested the July 2024 elections, claiming that he wanted to rest, but his party urged him to continue serving the people of Rwanda. The same can be said about President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda. Therefore, Mnangagwa’s claims cannot be trusted.
It could be that he made them after realizing that he took out his sword from its place too early, thereby giving his opponents the arsenal with which to attack and oppose him beforehand.
He knows there is a danger, however remote, for his opponents to unconstitutionally remove him from power under the justification that he is seeking to violate the constitution. He, therefore, could be putting his sword back in its place and making underwater maneuvers.
After all, he is known as a crocodile for his ability to strike decisively at the opportune moment. Despite his announcement that he will not go beyond 2028, some sections in ZANU-PF continue to push the agenda. State media continues to report events where some ZANU-PF structures have resolved to urge Mnangagwa to remain in office beyond 2028.
For example, the Herald of 22 July 2024 carried a story headlined “Mash East youth call for President to stay beyond 2028”. We are going to see more and more of these calls. It is going to be a farcical festival of calls accompanied by deaths “after a short illness” or through accidents.
It is clear that Mnangagwa wants to claim that he wants to complete his last term and rest, but ZANU-PF has pleaded with him to stay beyond 2028. He should know that the succession battle has started unnecessarily too early, making it difficult for ZANU-PF to focus on governance and the economy.
In an exclusive interview with The Standard on 19 July 2024, ZANU-PF’s spokesperson, Chris Mutsvangwa, said that Vice President Constantino Chiwenga will not automatically succeed President Mnangagwa in 2028 because ZANU-PF must choose its next leader through a democratic process.
He emphasized that ZANU-PF is not a church that anoints, instead of voting people to positions of power. He also refuted the theory that during the 2017 coup, there was a secret agreement between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga that the former would rule Zimbabwe for one presidential term and hand over power to the latter.
Whether there was such an agreement or not, the bottom line is that it would have been legendary magnanimity for General Chiwenga and his colleagues to put their lives on the line and remove Mugabe without some discussions and expectations regarding the succession question after the removal of Mugabe.
A coup against Mugabe was a dangerous maneuver. Those who benefited from General Chiwenga’s bold and precarious Operation Restore Legacy need a seared conscience to believe that it is fair for him not to be given the chance to be the next President of Zimbabwe.
Mutsvangwa’s claims that the next ZANU-PF leader will be elected through a democratic process aligns with Mnangagwa’s pronouncement that ZANU-PF will choose his successor via a congress.
However, this claim can either indicate a plan to close the door against General Chiwenga or to elevate Chiwenga through a congress to reinforce the claim that ZANU-PF is a democratic party.
However, we know that ZANU-PF does not have a culture of democratic transition of power, either within the party itself or at a national level following an election. The truth is that a gnashing of teeth is coming to ZANU-PF through the succession battle. 2028 is still distant, but the fissures in ZANU-PF are growing angrier and deeper.
Those who can learn from history know that ZANU-PF’s succession terrain requires astute maneuvers because it is infested with complex, ruthless, shifting, and amorphous snares. It is not a territory for zealots and daredevils who can lift their heads and genuinely support either of the political sides… unless you are sure that the side that you are supporting is bound to emerge victorious, something that you will never be, given the complexity and vicissitudes of succession politics.
In succession politics, a single unforeseen occurrence can drastically change the complexion of everything such that those who thought that they were on the safe side will find themselves gnashing their teeth.
Is Zimbabwe ready to avert the dangers and seize the moment?
Unlike ZANU-PF’s succession battle leading to the 2017 coup, the current one presents both dangers and opportunities. Tragically, it is coming at a time when the “democratic forces” are severely weak, invisible, fragmented, and disillusioned.
The main “opposition party”, the Citizens Coalition for Change, was hijacked by ZANU-PF. Nelson Chamisa, its founding president, unceremoniously abandoned it. It is now a shell, a mere appendage of ZANU-PF. It has no political life of its own. It needs ZANU-PF to survive, especially beyond 2028.
It is therefore willing to be used by ZANU-PF in the succession battle for purely opportunistic reasons. Chamisa remains highly popular but is not currently leading any political party.
A political party is an indispensable vehicle for mobilizing the masses, executing a weighty diplomatic offensive regionally and internationally, resisting the dangers, and harvesting the opportunities that come with a fierce succession battle in ZANU-PF. c
Besides, such a battle requires an opposition that is united, bold, strategic, relentless, and decisive.
On the other hand, civil society has a crucial role in averting the dangers and taking advantages presented by ZANU-PF’s succession battle. However, the once vibrant civil society is currently weak, except in isolated pockets, because its leaders are focusing on using donor funds to enrich themselves and the state has been closing the civic space.
The upshot is that the “democratic forces” cannot avert the dangers or harvest the opportunities. They can only be spectators. Whether we will see the miraculous emergence of a vibrant opposition party, civil society, or social movement is yet to be seen.
ZANU-PF is going through a fierce and farcical succession battle that presents serious dangers and unconventional opportunities, but is Zimbabwe ready to avert the attendant dangers and seize the opportunities of the moment?
Whether the answer is a yes or no, it is vitally important for regional and international organizations, particularly SADC and the African Union, to closely monitor the political developments in Zimbabwe because the potential of a disastrous end cannot be ruled out. Let those with ears hear.
Moses Tofa is a Research Leader, political analyst, and self-critical Pan-Africanist. He holds a PhD in Politics from the University of Johannesburg and a PhD in Conflict Studies from the University of Kwa-Zulu Natal. He writes in his capacity.
