In my previous articles, I delved into the inevitable conclusion of President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s tenure and explored potential successors, sparking lively debate and numerous emails on the subject. While I may not be able to respond to each message individually, I encourage continued engagement and dialogue on these important issues.
In this piece, I shift the spotlight to the international dynamics surrounding Zimbabwe’s succession, a crucial perspective often overlooked. The global stage is populated with a myriad of actors, each driven by their own interests, sometimes aligned, oftentimes in competition.
My analysis zeros in on the key players: China, Belarus, Russia, and the United States along with its European allies.
Let me be clear-I am not making accusations of interference in Zimbabwe’s succession process. Rather, I aim to unravel the intricate web of interests at play and examine which actors may align with specific outcomes.
This exploration dives into the political economy of Zimbabwe’s international relationships within the context of the succession conundrum. Reader, join me as we navigate the complex landscape of global power dynamics and their potential impact on Zimbabwe’s future.
Zimbabwean transitions and global influences
Understanding the intersection of Zimbabwean transitions and global interventions is pivotal, as historical precedents reveal external involvement shaping pivotal moments in the nation’s trajectory. From the momentous independence in 1980, overseen by the British, to the tumultuous aftermath of the 2008 disputed election, where South Africa brokered negotiations amidst pressure from the US and allies seeking stringent measures against the Mugabe regime, external actors have played decisive roles.
The subsequent coup in November 2017 saw Britain, represented by Ambassador Catriona Lang, throwing support behind Mnangagwa’s ascension. Hence, it’s clear that global stakeholders with vested interests in Zimbabwe will undoubtedly exert influence throughout the succession process. Now, let’s delve into the intricacies of these specific cases.
No free lunch from Beijing
As a global powerhouse, China has strategically pursued economic dominance in Africa, with Zimbabwe becoming a significant beneficiary-or perhaps victim-of its financial largesse. With reported loans exceeding US$13 billion by 2022, coupled with a debt surpassing US$2 billion, Zimbabwe finds itself entangled in a web of indebtedness, mortgaging its future to Chinese interests.
The mining sector, particularly lithium extraction, is a prime example, with China exercising absolute control over billions of dollars’ worth of resources.
In exchange for its financial support, China has positioned itself as a stalwart ally on the international stage, countering Western influence at every turn.
Infrastructure projects, such as the defense college near Harare and the US$200 million New Parliament Building, serve as tangible symbols of China’s largesse. However, these gifts and loans come with a price tag-there is no such thing as a free lunch from Beijing.
Given the deep economic ties and substantial financial investments, China undoubtedly prefers stability in Harare. The close relationship was demonstrated during the 2017 coup, where General Chiwenga, fresh from a visit to China, played a pivotal role.
Moreover, Chinese medical assistance reportedly aided in his recovery from illness. Will Beijing continue to support its ally in Harare? Only time will tell. However, one thing is certain-the Asian dragon will wield significant influence over the outcome of Harare’s succession conundrum.
Belarus’ murky deals and family ties
With Mnangagwa’s rise to power, Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko wasted no time in dispatching his emissary, Viktor Sheiman, to negotiate lucrative business ventures. Under the guise of legitimate enterprise, Zimbabwe Goldfields, controlled by Sheiman and fellow Belarusian businessman Zigman-both known allies of Lukashenko-engaged in questionable mining activities, wreaking havoc on the environment and local livelihoods, particularly in Manicaland.
Beyond mining, Belarus extended its reach, supplying buses and mechanized equipment at undisclosed costs. One striking example is the reported US$54 million windfall pocketed by Mnangagwa confidant and family associate, Kuda Tagwirei, through bus imports from Belarus.
Notably, the First Family, including the First Lady and Mnangagwa’s twin sons, embarked on numerous business excursions to Belarus, hinting at their involvement in these clandestine dealings. It’s evident that Belarus’ business interests are intricately intertwined with Mnangagwa and his inner circle, with personal gain taking precedence over national interests.
Unlike China’s strategic alliances, Belarus’ sweetheart deals serve personal agendas, making Lukashenko a likely supporter of Mnangagwa’s continued reign or even his pursuit of a third term. Whichever way it goes, Belarus will stand with a succession matrix favourable to Mnangagwa because without him or his proxy, the party is over.
Russia’s grain diplomacy
Despite historical ties dating back to the liberation era, Russia’s economic footprint in Zimbabwe pales in comparison to that of China or Belarus. While the nation maintains interests in mining, particularly platinum, its investments beyond this sector remain limited.
However, Russia has strategically employed its grain diplomacy as a diplomatic overture, offering much-needed sustenance to Zimbabwe’s struggling populace.
Moreover, it has extended invitations to ruling party youths, hosting them at the World Youth Festival in Sochi, and even extending an offer for Zimbabwean observers to witness Putin’s recent “coronation” as life president of Russia during the recent elections.
However, Russia’s involvement in Zimbabwe’s succession conundrum is tempered by its ongoing war efforts in Ukraine, which detract from its ability to exert significant influence in Harare’s affairs.
Nevertheless, indications suggest that Russia will likely throw its support behind whichever faction emerges victorious in the succession battles, showcasing its pragmatic approach to foreign affairs.
US and its allies sticking to their guns
Amidst shifting tides, the US and its allies have steadfastly maintained targeted sanctions against individuals and entities implicated in human rights abuses within Zimbabwe.
While the EU has lifted sanctions on all individuals, the US has recently bolstered its stance by placing President Mnangagwa and his inner circle on the Global Magnitsky sanctions list.
This resolute position suggests that the US and its allies are unlikely to waver, even in the face of a potential regime change. They are poised to demand substantial reforms in the political landscape, rule of law, and human rights sphere, setting stringent prerequisites for any alteration in their stance.
Thus, their vested interest in Zimbabwe’s succession hinges upon the implementation of reforms geared towards fostering liberal democratic principles and fostering closer economic ties with the Western world.
In summary, the diverse array of stakeholders invested in Zimbabwe’s future each brings their unique perspective to the succession dynamics. China’s enduring commitment suggests a long-term vision, while Belarus is in it for immediate spoils.
Meanwhile, Russia’s distant preoccupations limit its involvement, leaving it on the periphery. On the other hand, the unwavering stance of the US and its allies emphasise their insistence on substantial reforms towards liberal democratic values.
These varied interests demonstrate the complex interplay of global forces who will have some say in the succession conundrum.
Pride Mkono is a political analyst, social justice activist, and strategist. He writes here in his personal capacity and can be reached on: [email protected]
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