Every journey, no matter how grand or humble, has its end. Such is the fate that awaits the presidency of our dear nation under President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s leadership; it too shall culminate.
As we confront this inevitable reality, it becomes imperative for astute political analysis to illuminate the various potential paths leading to the conclusion of Mnangagwa’s tenure.
While fervent supporters and ardent followers may espouse the notion of an everlasting reign, the truth remains elusive to such claims.
In my previous discourse, I delved into the intricacies of a potential third term bid and how it could serve as a means for perpetuating power within Zanu PF, while the reins of the state are subtly passed to a proxy chosen by Mnangagwa himself.
In this piece, I delve into the various scenarios that could ultimately mark the conclusion of Mnangagwa’s presidential tenure. These scenarios, while not mutually exclusive, weave a complex collage of potential outcomes, each influencing and intertwining with the next.
Politics, as we know, is far from an exact science; rather, it is a realm of ever-shifting dynamics and unpredictable turns.
Through these scenarios, I aim to offer a theoretical framework for understanding the possible trajectories ahead, presenting invaluable insights for pro-democracy activists, civil society, and opposition parties alike.
Without assigning probabilities, I simply outline each scenario, empowering readers with comprehensive knowledge. Ultimately, the fate of Mnangagwa’s presidency rests squarely in his hands; his actions, both deliberate and inadvertent, will shape the course of events. Here we go!
When does effective transition start?
President Mnangagwa currently holds the highest office in Zimbabwe by virtue of the Constitution, a document that both defines and constrains his authority.
According to this supreme law, he is subject to a two-term limit, a restriction that underscores the democratic principles upon which our nation is founded.
As he embarks on his second term, it is imperative to recognize the explicit language of Section 91(2) of the Constitution, which unequivocally states:
‘A person is disqualified for election as President or Vice-President if he or she has already held office as President under this Constitution for two terms, whether continuous or not, and for the purpose of this subsection three or more years’ service is deemed to be a full term.’
This provision leaves no room for ambiguity; Mnangagwa’s current term is his last, as prescribed by law.
Section 91(2) of the Constitution marks a significant milestone in the transition away from President Mnangagwa’s tenure, pinpointing September 5, 2026, as the pivotal date.
This date signifies the completion of three years since his inauguration in 2023, triggering the legal threshold for his two-term limit.
As per this provision, Mnangagwa would have fulfilled his constitutional mandate and should begin the process of stepping down from both his leadership roles within Zanu PF and the state machinery.
However, navigating this transition is uncharted territory for Zimbabwe, a nation that has not experienced a peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1980.
Understanding the commencement of this transition is paramount for those advocating for democratic consolidation to strategize effectively. In the following discussion, I will explore the diverse scenarios that may unfold.
Scenario 1: Adherence to Term Limits – The ‘Wits of the Good Dancer
In this scenario, Mnangagwa voluntarily decides to step down and publicly announces his intention to leave office in 2028, in accordance with constitutional term limits.
At the age of 85 by 2028, Mnangagwa would have lived a long and eventful life, spanning over five decades of political engagement. From surviving a death row sentence to serving as a guerrilla fighter and later becoming a key ally to former President Robert Mugabe, Mnangagwa’s political journey has been extensive.
Despite facing challenges and setbacks, including a failed presidential bid in 2003, he eventually ascended to power through a dramatic military coup in November 2017.
Throughout his tenure, Mnangagwa has wielded considerable political influence, holding key ministerial positions such as defense and state intelligence.
Despite criticism for policy failures and economic downturns, Mnangagwa has largely maintained a firm grip on power, facing minimal opposition.
Additionally, his years in government have led to substantial personal wealth accumulation, particularly through access to lucrative mineral resources such as gold, potentially making him one of the wealthiest individuals in Zimbabwe.
In this scenario, Mnangagwa would embody the metaphorical ‘good dancer, gracefully adhering to constitutional provisions by stepping down and transitioning into a role as a retired statesman.
Following this decision, Mnangagwa would oversee the Zanu PF Congress in 2027, where a new party leader would be elected. Subsequently, he would not contest the 2028 general election.
Instead, Mnangagwa would retreat to his farm, dedicating his twilight years to managing his extensive estate and ensuring its legacy for his large brood of children.
Scenario 2: Natural Incapacitation or Demise – The Hand of Fate
Death, the ultimate certainty of life, knows no boundaries, sparing neither the powerful nor the humble. At 81 years old, Mnangagwa appears to exude vitality, seemingly untouched by the passage of time.
Despite surviving a poisoning scare in the recent past, he maintains a robust demeanor. However, the fragility of existence. leaves room for the unforeseen; illness or unforeseen accidents could render Mnangagwa incapacitated or worse.
In the event of his demise or incapacity, Section 101 of the Constitution dictates that the last acting Vice President assumes the presidency until Zanu PF nominates a successor to complete the term.
This scenario, colloquially known as ‘the hand of God, looms as a specter, a reminder of mortality’s indiscriminate reach, casting uncertainty on the political landscape..
Scenario 3: Palace Coup-The Ides of November
President Mnangagwa’s ascension to power in November 2017 marked a tumultuous chapter in Zimbabwe’s political saga, orchestrated by his current Vice President, Constantino Chiwenga, then a prominent military figure.
The backdrop was a fierce power struggle within Zanu PF, pitting Mnangagwa and Chiwenga against a faction dubbed G40, led by former President Robert Mugabe’s wife.
Their opposition to what they perceived as the establishment of a dynastic rule culminated in a decisive military intervention, resulting in the exile of key G40 members.
Today, echoes of history reverberate as Mnangagwa’s inner circle entertains notions of perpetuating a familial legacy akin to Mugabe’s.
The spectre of a third term and constitutional amendments fuels dissent among disgruntled factions, priming the stage for a potential palace coup.
In this scenario, Mnangagwa faces a déjà vu moment reminiscent of Mugabe’s downfall, compelled to relinquish power as Zanu PF manoeuvres to install a successor, plunging the nation into a vortex of uncertainty.
Scenario 4: Impeachment and Dissolution of Parliament – The Velvet Asphyxiation
As President Mnangagwa contemplates extending his tenure through constitutional amendments which would include referendums, tensions may brew within rival factions of Zanu PF.
Should his manoeuvrings provoke the ire of dissenting voices, a swift response may materialize in the form of impeachment proceedings under section 97 of the Constitution.
Alternatively, the spectre of dissolution looms ominously as parliament may exercise its constitutional authority to pass a resolution for dissolution in terms of section 143.
Timing is pivotal, as any such resolution passed after September 5, 2026 the threshold marking the completion of his two-term tenure – renders Mnangagwa ineligible to contest a subsequent snap election.
This scenario paints a portrait of parliamentary power play, akin to a velvet rope tightening around the President’s ambitions – a silent yet potent force poised to reshape Zimbabwe’s political landscape.
Scenario 5: Mass Protests and Resignation of President
The Zimbabwe Spring President Mnangagwa’s tenure has been marred by a litany of woes, with corruption and economic mismanagement standing at the forefront of public discontent. Urban areas, in particular, bear the brunt of pernicious poverty and exorbitant tax burdens, fueling widespread disillusionment among the populace.
Reports reveal a stark decline in the President’s approval ratings, especially within urban demographics, where sentiments of electoral rigging linger from the contentious elections of 2018 and 2023.
Civil servants and security personnel languish in the throes of low morale, grappling with paltry salaries and deplorable working conditions.
Meanwhile, a disheartened youth population, bereft of prospects for a better future, adds to the pervasive sense of disillusionment.
Despite mounting grievances, fear and disorganization have hitherto stifled any substantial challenge to Mnangagwa’s grip on power, bolstered by the coercive tactics of state security apparatus.
Nevertheless, simmering frustrations threaten to boil over, and pro-democracy groups, opposition factions, disgruntled Zanu PF members, civil society organizations, and ordinary citizens may join hands in collective action.
In a seismic shift reminiscent of the Arab Spring of 2010-2011, the convergence of these disparate forces may precipitate mass protests, exerting immense pressure on President Mnangagwa to relinquish power and usher in a new era of governance.
In conclusion, while the outlined scenarios are not exhaustive and the landscape of politics remains dynamic, they serve as a plausible framework for pro-democracy advocates and civil society to strategize for the conclusion of Mnangagwa’s presidency.
Each scenario offers avenues for leveraging opportunities and addressing inherent risks through deliberate action by those vested in the welfare of our nation.
Ultimately, President Mnangagwa bears the onus of determining the trajectory of his tenure’s conclusion. It behooves him to exercise magnanimity and prudence in charting his course forward, mindful of the enduring impact on our country’s future.
Pride Mkono is a political analyst, social justice activist, and strategist. He writes here in his personal capacity and can be reached on: [email protected]
As far as l can see ,it will be a difficult thing for zimbabweans to be ruled by a gvnt of their choice