By Lloyd Mbiba
HARARE – The opposition coalition being mooted by expelled MDC secretary-general Tendai Biti is doomed to fail, analysts say. Biti hopes to challenge the two dominant political parties, President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu PF and Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC.
Founded during a series of recent meetings with other opposition parties and with cautious support from Western donors, the coalition aims to garner support to break the current opposition stalemate, defeat the Mugabe regime and establish a fresh government.
Analysts say instead of seeking to unify the country’s increasingly-fractious opposition, the coalition is driven by sectarian intellectual interests and a shocking appetite for donor funds, while detached from the grassroots.
Critics says unless this divide is reconciled, the coalition will face the same fiasco as its defunct predecessor, the grand coalition, which tried to create an opposition alliance ahead of the July 31 vote. Worse still, it will further encourage the hegemonic power by one group over others as leaders carve out and consolidate their own power bases.
Biti’s new coalition is attempting to create a more inclusive force and broaden its appeal to the Zimbabwean population and is trying to bring in key leaders from the heart of opposition, including smaller MDC faction leader Welshman Ncube, Dumiso Dabengwa of Zapu, Lovemore Madhuku of the National Constitutional Assembly and businessman Mutumwa Mawere.
The group has tried to court Simba Makoni, but the former Sadc executive secretary yesterday announced that he is backing Tsvangirai, apparently spurning Biti and his team.
It is not the first time this has been tried. In 2005, the then MDC secretary-general Ncube and his allies in the top echelon of MDC leadership, ditched Tsvangirai to form their breakaway faction.
In the aftermath of the 2005 split, Ncube and his party became an insignificant group in the political landscape while Tsvangirai went on to win the first round of the presidential elections in 2008, but fell short of the majority, thereby setting the stage for a run-off election that was blighted by political violence, culminating in the formation of a coalition government between Tsvangirai and Mugabe.
Six years later, another MDC secretary-general has dumped Tsvangirai saying he is undemocratic.
The coalition advocates are planning a convention where churches, political parties, civil society and other stakeholders will officially launch the new baby soon.
Eldred Masunungure, a political analyst, said the coalition is doomed as it will consist of politicians who are not equals.
“I think the coalition of Biti and partners will not work because one group will have more hegemonic power over others and I don’t see that working,” Masunungure told the Daily News.
“Biti is coming into the coalition bigger than Dabengwa, Ncube and Makoni. No matter how you want to look at it, Biti will dominate the coalition and I don’t see others accepting that.
“I have serious reservations about the coalition because I don’t think it is viable and sustainable. It was possible for Zanu to go into a coalition in 1987 with Zapu because the two were big liberation movements. Mugabe and (Joshua) Nkomo were equals and that is why the unity pact worked.”
Analysts say the coalition is largely made up of intellectuals who are detached from the grassroots as evidenced by the 50 people who graced Biti’s recent Manicaland rally.
Piers Pigou, the International Crisis Group’s southern Africa project director, said the coalition will not work in the short-term.
He said in the long run, if the coalition manages to rally the masses behind its cause, the group might become relevant.
“I think this depends on whether the proposed coalition decides to focus on electoral politics, or to try and reconnect with a broader range of constituencies through the establishment of a mooted united democratic front,” Pigou said.
“Can it present a ‘third way’, an alternative to MDC-T and Zanu PF? This seems very unlikely in the short to medium term, and its fortunes in future ballots will be contingent on its ability to motivate and mobilise a support base that subsequently registers and votes.
“The proposed coalition is likely to have more resonance with a broader range of Zimbabweans if it focused its attention and messaging on core issues that affect ordinary Zimbabweans, that is unemployment, poverty, service delivery, corruption etc.
“So, in terms of its import for the future, much depends on how it approaches ordinary Zimbabweans and the credibility it can build amongst those who must now be very wary about the bona fides of the country’s political leadership,” added Pigou. Daily News
