Mugabe has little to gain from recalling Biti MPs

By Wilbert Mukori

Recalling the 9 MPs on the Tendai Biti faction will meaning the country holding by-elections in the nine constituencies; that will presents Mugabe with a big headache for a number of reasons:

1. It would be tempting for him to steal a few more seats from the opposition; in other words, try to rig the elections. I do not think Mugabe would want to run that risk. So Zanu PF will field candidates in the by-elections but they will have to win the vote without State or party machinery coming to their aid.
    
   There will Zanu PF party cadres keen as mustard to get back on the gravy train who will run but they will be largely on their own. Mugabe has the majority he needs to do anything he wants already and therefore will not want to risk people asking him again about his failure to hold free, fair and credible elections.
   
2. On the other hand allowing either the Tsvangirai or Biti factions to have a clean sweep is politically as unpalatable to the tyrant as eating saw dust, especially if the latter faction was to take all the seats. An opposition that has just won nine bye-election seats will be more assertive than ever.
    
   Mugabe is facing some really serious problems with the worsening economic situation and a resurgent opposition each keen to outdo the other and thus prove they are can take on Mugabe head-on is the last thing the tyrant wants.
   
3. Running the by-elections will cost a few hundred thousand dollars; the regime is stone-broke. The temptation is for Mugabe to go along with Biti’s suggestion that none of the rebels MPs should be considered as having crossed the floor to justify recall and therefore by-elections.
    
   It can however not be denied that Mugabe has derived a great deal of political pleasure to see Tsvangirai and Biti fighting and tiring each other to bits. The price tag of the by-elections may therefore be a price Mugabe is willingly to pay just to see the two fight for a bit longer.
   
4. But by a long mile the greatest worry in holding the by-elections for Mugabe will be what voters roll to use?
    
   The regime has stubbornly refused to release the voters roll used in the 2013 elections and for good reason – it is the smoking gun to the blatant vote rigging. Every time someone has asked for it the regime’s representative, be it Registrar General Tobaiwa Mudede of the ZEC chairperson Rita Makarau, have gone several sheds darker. The USA government rubbed salt and hot chills into Mudede’s eyes by splatting him with the targeted sanctions for his role in withholding the voters roll.
    
   The official position is that the computer holding the voters roll data broke down and thus the voters roll, hard copy or electronic, was not available. The regime will now have to get the said computer repaired quick-smart because there cannot be bye-elections in nine constituencies without a voters roll.
    
   Now everyone knows the voters roll was the smoking gun in the rigged 2013 elections and the regime knows producing the roll for the by-elections will only wet its critics’ appetite. They will be asking why the regime had failed to produce the complete voters roll all along with renewed vigour. They will scrutinize the by-election rolls for any changes from those used in the July 2013 elections; for the regime to reproduce the rolls with all the deliberate Nikuv engineered modifications will be to commit political suicide.

Those who follow the trial and tribulations of sport will know the nail-baiting tension of the last game deciding whether your team wins or drops out of the British Barclays Premiership or the Spanish Leliga or American Basketball NBA or wins World Cup Football Final for the first time ever. Every time the ball is the opposition end your hopes soar into the stratosphere only to sink to unknown depths it is the other end.

For the three main protagonists in Zimbabwean politics the by-elections will have all the nail-baiting tension of sport except that here the game has already kicked-off and it could be months before the final whistle. The stakes could not be any higher; their political careers are at stake.

Tsvangirai, as the person who insisted on the MPs being recalled, he will need to win at least two or three of the seats or his credibility will sink even more.

Tendai Biti will have gained nothing if he won back all of the seats since they are all from his camp. But leasing even one or two will hurt. If he was to lose more than half then his name is mud.

As for Mugabe, the results of the by-elections are not important his team has already won the Premier League, the Africa Cup of Nations even the World Cup; he has nothing to play for here. What is worrying him is that as a result of this Third Division game; FIFA officials are talking of testing all the B samples of all the players across the board for doping!

The by-elections could lead to the discovery of how Mugabe rigged the 2013 elections; the political consequences of that are simply unthinkable for Mugabe and Zanu PF.

This could end up as a dramatic twist that would delight William Shakespeare himself. Instead of either Biti or Tsvangirai, the main protagonists, drawing the bad card; it is Mugabe, the bystander, who gets the death card!

Excellent end, I will be playing “(Draw) Bad Card” by Bob Marley for years in celebration!