Mugabe in dilemma over successor

By Faith Zaba

HARARE- President Robert Mugabe, whose continued stay in power despite failing health and advanced age is increasingly becoming a catalyst for internal divisions within Zanu PF, is in a dilemma over finding his ideal successor, Zanu PF insiders revealed this week.

In separate interviews with the Zimbabwe Independent, top Zanu PF officials said Mugabe’s decision to hang on to power was an indication of a leadership crisis in Zanu PF rather than his desire to protect the country against imperialism as he claims.

Mugabe, who turns 88 next month and has been Zimbabwe’s only leader since Independence in 1980, will be seeking to extend his 32 years in power after Zanu PF endorsed him at its annual conference in Bulawayo in December as its presidential candidate for polls expected after the constitution-making process either thus year or early 2013.

The party insiders said Mugabe, who had indicated in 2004 that he would retire in 2008, was having problems finding an ideal successor amongst those interested in the top post.

Vice-President Joice Mujuru and Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa have been vying for the top post. There is also a “third force” emerging being referred to as the Generation 40, which has been quietly positioning itself as an alternative to the rivals.

A group of generals in the army disgruntled by Zanu PF’s failure to resolve the issue are reportedly also pushing for Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander Constantine Chiwenga to take over from Mugabe.

The sources said a certain section in Zanu PF wanted him to serve his full term, which expires in 2013, giving him time to sell his successor and implement the indigenisation and empowerment programme and conclude the land reform programme.

But the sources pointed out that Mugabe’s dilemma was to find a candidate, who has political clout and is sellable to the grassroots level.

“A lot of people are asking why there is this push for elections this year, when we might lose and what is their interest (the people pushing for elections). We don’t want another disputed election — we can’t go back to 2008. If we are not careful we will have another 2008 on our hands,” said one politburo member.

“A lot of us feel that we should wait until 2013 to allow the party to implement the indigenisation programme and sort out the land reform programme. We think that the president should serve his full term and this will give him time to anoint his successor and sell him to the electorate.

“If the two programmes are implemented properly so that they benefit ordinary people, we should be able to sell that person to the electorate.”

Another politburo member close to the First Family said;

“The problem he has at the moment is who to choose to succeed him. Who among those interested has the political clout to take over and who among them is sellable to the electorate — the grassroots, business, regional and international communities? He wants to ensure Zanu PF’s continued survival.

“There is also the issue of trust. You don’t want someone who will sell you out to the ICC (International Criminal Court). That is the dilemma that the president finds himself in right now.”

While another group believes that this is just an excuse to stop discussions on the complex succession issue. They believe that Mugabe should open up debate on his successor if the party is to win the next elections.

“If people are allowed to choose who should succeed Mugabe, we will find someone. You can’t tell me that there is no one in Zanu PF able to take over — that can’t be true,” said one top official linked to Mujuru’s faction.

Infighting in Zanu PF is intensifying as it dawns on the main factions that elections might be held in 2012 when Mugabe is still fit to stand as a candidate.

But if the elections are pushed to 2013 when they are constitutionally due, Zanu PF officials said it would not be practical or reasonable to field Mugabe as a candidate largely due to old age and ill-health.

If elections are held in 2012, the party’s plan is to secure victory using Mugabe, and then press him to resign and hand over power to a successor. The officials said the succession debate can no longer remain a taboo after the US cables revealed that most senior party leaders wanted Mugabe to go.

Mugabe is set to battle it out with 59-year-old Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai at the polls, which would be a replay of the 2002 and 2008 contests, which were a close shave for him. Mugabe told his supporters last month that he will not retire until after what his party calls “illegal sanctions” are removed.

“Sometimes there have been calls that I must retire but as long as there is still a lot of work to be done… I cannot leave you on your own in the deep-end,” Mugabe said.

Referring to the targeted sanctions, he said: “I cannot say I am now on the shore that would be a demonstration of loss of confidence in myself and an act of complete cowardice. I am not a coward.”

This came after explosive revelations in United States diplomatic cables by whistleblower website WikiLeaks last year, which showed that Mugabe’s close allies are desperate for leadership renewal in Zanu PF.

The faction led by the late retired army commander General Solomon Mujuru wanted Mugabe out.

The Mujuru faction tried but failed to remove Mugabe as the candidate at the party’s extraordinary congress in December 2007, where former politburo members Dumiso Dabengwa and Simba Makoni, who later quit in frustration, were geared to mount a surprise challenge against their leader. Zimbabwe Independent