Uncertainty grips Zanu PF

By Maggie Mzumara

As the ruling party gears for its elective congress in December, having put behind it the youths and women’s conferences earlier last month, very few things are definite. More elements than ever before are enveloped in uncertainty — with a heavy and looming cloud of the unexpected spoiling to set in.

As things stand, it is not certain what will happen or not happen to key positions. Even senior party stalwarts are unclear as to where they stand as the winds of possible, and altogether unpredictable, shake-ups rage on, albeit against a background of pervasive fear within the rank and file of the revolutionary party.

A lot of dust has been thrown up in the air with the internecine fighting which has characterised the politics in the ruling party in recent years, making it impossible to see what is on the horizon. Experts say this is more by design, than by chance, as the “big man politics” in the ruling party has shown several times before. Only one position in the presidium is guaranteed — that of the President.

Vice-President Joice Mujuru who was catapulted into power in 2004, at the President’s pleasure and with the Women’s League’s backing, does not seem to have either. Neither the President’s support nor the Women’s League backing are guaranteed as things stand with only four months to go before the ruling party’s elective congress. And time is running out. According to State media reports, Mujuru could face a challenge.

Open attacks of her and questions on her liberation war struggle by fellow comrade and Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Chris Mutsvangwa, have been the clearest indication that hawks are indeed circling around her position. The fact that the President has not been seen going out of his way to either defend or promote her, has left many wondering whether or not that spells doom for his number two.

What has further created uncertainty at the top is the President’s announcement that all positions will be vacated as people go to congress. The Women’s League only endorsed the President and First Lady Grace Mugabe who is touted to be the new women’s wing boss. The very entry of the First Lady onto the political scene has made ZANU-PF bigwigs anxious about what could be up her sleeve.

“Mai Mujuru is fully aware that this is a political struggle for power and she is also aware that she has rivals gunning for the same position. So I will be surprised if Mai Mujuru thinks she will have any easy ride,” says political analyst, Rashweat Mukundu. “ZANU-PF power struggles are historically nasty and Mai Mujuru should expect these kinds of attacks and it is up to her stamina and strategic thinking to carry her through as nothing is certain.”

“The entrance into the fray by the First Lady somehow diminishes Mujuru’s chances,” adds another political analyst, Earnest Mudzengi. But, Mujuru is not the only one in the presidium who is at sixes and sevens. Party national chairman, Simon Khaya Moyo, who had all along been widely viewed as the frontrunner for the position of second Vice President, is facing some challenge from fellow former ZAPU cadres, including Home Affairs Minister, Kembo Mohadi, who recently threw his hat in the ring.

Other former ZAPU members, who could also challenge for the position on the basis of more seniority than Khay-Moyo are Retired Brigadier Ambrose Mutinhiri, who is also the legislator for Marondera West and Phelekezela Mphoko, former ambassador to South Africa, who is also a former military commander.

Party secretary for administration, Didymus Mutasa, who is believed to have been gunning for the national chairman position — which is also part of the presidium — took a hit a fortnight ago, when the President stunned many with a thinly veiled swipe at him for failure to organise the youth conference.

President Mugabe said that leaders who failed to exhibit their leadership qualities would be dealt with at the national people’s congress. The public reprimand by the President has cast doubt over whether or not Mutasa will climb the ladder into the presidium. But that is not all, additional odds against him include the fact that traditionally the chairman position has been occupied by former ZAPU cadres.

Although this is not written anywhere, the practice, believed to be some form of gentlemen’s agreement, had over the years gone some way towards ethnic balancing within the party top echelons of power. If this is held firm as per previous practice, it automatically disqualifies Mutasa from the ambitious climb.

As many flounder in uncertainty of what the congress will bring, only one man wields power in the revolutionary party to place, move or remove other cadres like pawns in a game from or to positions — the President.

Such is the power he yields that only he, like a grandmaster, can determine what happens. Fear of him and his power is as widespread as it is deep. No one from within the party dares challenge him and no one can summon enough guts to question his immense power and the decisions emanating from it. So, the party waits on him, hook, line and sinker.

“There is definitely fear in ZANU-PF. The President wields so much power that people fear him,” Mudzengi says. “He has, over the years, created a system around him that brooks no challenge of him. If one challenges him, he or she risks falling prey to that system.”

Although it has been rumoured that many in the ruling party, including some bigwigs, would welcome leadership renewal in the party. Most have not been daring enough to stand against the tide that year in, year out sees the singing of praises of the party President and urges him on as the supreme leader.

Very few, over the years, have dared speak openly against President Mugabe. These include, among others, Dumiso Dabengwa who left the ruling party to revive ZAPU; and Simba Makoni, who left to form Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn party. Makoni says the fear of the veteran leader in the ruling party is palpable.

“An overwhelming number of people in ZANU-PF want change but there is not enough with the courage of their convictions. They will not risk living their beliefs so they coast along with those who are resisting change because they do not want to take the risk,” Makoni says.

In secret, however, Makoni believes, some find the elusive courage. Although many others see the fear within the ruling party as overwhelming, others say the veteran statesman seems to be losing grip of the party as infighting rears its ugly head uncontrollably within the party.

Mukundu agrees.

“The President is increasingly becoming a lone voice calling for quiet and unity when everyone else is focused on power,” Mukundu says.

“President Mugabe still wields lots of power and influence but is slowly losing grip. Zimbabwe faces the risk of serious political convulsions as (President) Mugabe is failing to initiate a smooth power transition hence putting the country at risk as ZANU-PF is meshed with state institutions and succession in ZANU-PF will engulf the whole country in flames if not handled wisely.”

However, Mudzengi cautions, what is seemingly appearing as loss of control should not fool people. “This should not be looked at as loss of control. There is another issue to it. It is not just open battles between two factions, but there is also the President’s overall strategy,” Mudzengi says.

According to Mudzengi, it could be advantageous to the President when the factions war against each other as this helps balance them out and not pose challenge to the throne.

“President Mugabe’s overall strategy could be to pit the factions against each other to make sure there is no particular group that becomes too powerful. If one group becomes too powerful, it can become a threat to him; and he needs to maintain his position as the unthreatened leader of the party,” Mudzengi says. Financial Gazette