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Dr Phillan Zamchiya

Afrobarometer Zimbabwe pre-election survey an early wake up call for CCC

By Dr.Phillan Zamchiya

Reader, ZANU PF and Mnangagwa’s lead partly remains a paradox though because the survey shows that most people are not happy.

A majority of respondents (65%) say the country is going in the wrong direction; a large majority (69%) say the economy is bad and 62% say the living conditions are bad and this constitutes an equal proportion from both the urban and rural areas.

An overwhelming majority (85%) say the government has performed badly in addressing key issues such as unemployment, corruption, the economy and managing the economy.

Why then would the same people still vote for a failing government and not for the opposition? I can deduct four broad answers from the survey results.

Jul 14, 2023 Read more

With election date set, now time ‘for meticulous and informed planning’

By Dr Phillan Zamchiya: “Today, the Zimbabwe President has proclaimed the 23rd of August 2023 as the date for the General Election. Remember Dear Reader that on 19 May our article argued that “Zimbabwe’s General Election must be held between the 20th and the 26th of August 2023. However, we should continuously endeavor to understand the nature of this complex state and its politics for meticulous and informed planning.”

May 31, 2023 Read more

How traditional leaders help to rig elections on voting day in Zimbabwe

By Dr Phillan Zamchiya

Dear Reader,

In this edition, I seek to partly demonstrate how some traditional leaders rig elections in favour of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU PF) on the voting day in marginal rural areas.

I go further to suggest some practical interventions as a way to ignite wider debates ahead of Zimbabwe’s 2023 general election. This is based on insights drawn from a history of researching electoral politics in Zimbabwe.

Apr 25, 2023 Read more

Political notes on inevitable court challenges against Zimbabwe’s Draft Delimitation Report

By Dr. Phillan Zamchiya

In my view, if any legal challenge is going to place GERRYMANDERING at the centre it is easier for such a case to crumble like a deck of cards. Why? Reader, GERRYMANDERING involves drawing constituencies and wards to shape the electoral outcome in favour of a particular political party or contestant. So this approach will require the applicant to prove the cited electorate’s voting preference.

This is because the issue will be about the swapping of potential voters between constituencies and wards to achieve a particular partisan outcome. I know I use gerrymandering in my articles on the delimitation report but it is because I have evidence through studying voter inclinations in most constituencies in Zimbabwe.

Reader, but even that scientific knowledge can easily be rendered useless in Zimbabwe’s higher courts proven to be largely beholden to the executive (hence not my favourite path) especially when it comes to rulings that concern the saddle of state power.

Jan 09, 2023 Read more

Seven highlights from Zimbabwe’s 2022 Draft Delimitation Report

Dr Phillan Zamchiya

Dear Reader,

Zimbabwe’s draft delimitation report tabled in parliament today the 6th of January 2023 in line with section 161 of the constitution threatens electoral democracy in a subtle but deadly way. The report is 509 pages and has an anexure with 995 pages and maps.

The report compiled by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) which is the statutory body mandated to run national elections presents the preliminary wards and 210 constituencies that can be used in the coming July/August 2023 general election if completed by 28 January 2023.

Jan 06, 2023 Read more

‘Mnangagwa’s constitutional coup attempt for a third-term will backfire’

Dr Phillan Zamchiya: “Even if Mnangagwa wins the referendum there is a third exceptional legal albatross to authoritarian consolidation in Zimbabwe. Section 328 (7) of the Zimbabwe constitution clearly stipulates that the person who held the office of the President before the amendment cannot benefit from the extension of term limits. So even if Mnangagwa manages to change the constitution he is still barred by section 328 (7) to extend his rule beyond two terms that is beyond 2028. It is his successor who can legally benefit from that chicanery.”

Dec 20, 2022 Read more

Survey shows Chamisa leading Mnangagwa if presidential elections were held now

Dr Phillan Zamchiya

Dear Reader,

The Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) released the Afro-barometer round nine survey on Zimbabwe on 15 June 2022.

The survey shows the incipient decline of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU PF)’s leader, Emmerson Mnangagwa, and the rise of Nelson Chamisa the leader of opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC).

If presidential elections were to be held at this juncture, the ZANU PF leader will lose to the CCC leader. The survey signals that 33 % of respondents would vote for Chamisa against 30% for Mnangagwa.

Jun 16, 2022 Read more

Dr Zamchiya: Zanu PF’s mythical 3.9 million registered membership

Dr Phillan Zamchiya: “To simplify, the politburo is also in the dark about who is a ZANU PF member or not in the cell structure. It was therefore not surprising that the ruling party’s second secretary, Kembo Mohadi, like other politburo members, was disappointed as a few people turned out at the 11 June 2022 cell day meeting in his hometown of Beitbridge. Mohadi insisted that he wanted ‘to see faces and not just a register’.”

Zanu PF claims it has a whooping 3.9 million members where the national voter register has about 5.6 million people while the ruling African National Congress in South Africa which is one of the oldest national liberation movements in the world had only 1.4 million registered members in a context where the number of registered voters was about 26 million as of 12 June 2022.

Jun 14, 2022 Read more

Six questions and answers from Zimbabwe’s March 2022 by-elections

Dr Phillan Zamchiya

There are a number of political questions that these by elections helped to answer. Here are six.

Which party is more popular between MDC A and CCC?
Is there now a credible infrastructure to run free and fair elections?
Are ZANU PF’s policies appealing to the urban voters?
Is the opposition making electoral inroads in the rural areas?
What is the new from Chamisa at CCC?
Are citizens ready to put a ceiling on election rigging?

Reader, come now let us debate some answers.

Mar 28, 2022 Read more