From reform to repression: Assessing Tanzania’s democratic decline under Suluhu Hassan

Tanzania, once the ideological crucible of African liberation and the moral compass of postcolonial governance, now staggers under the weight of its own betrayal.

The 2025 general election was not a democratic exercise; it was a choreographed farce, a coronation cloaked in the language of legitimacy, executed with the precision of authoritarian theatre.

What unfolded was not a contest of ideas, but a systematic annihilation of dissent, orchestrated by a regime that has forfeited its claim to constitutional fidelity.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first woman to ascend to Tanzania’s highest office, has presided over the most devastating dismantling of democratic infrastructure since independence.

Her administration has not merely failed, it has actively subverted the foundational principles upon which the Tanzanian republic was built.

This is not a momentary lapse. It is a rupture, a violent severance from the legacy of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, whose vision, alongside others, gave birth to the Organisation of African Unity and whose moral clarity guided the liberation of Southern Africa.

What we are witnessing is not a crisis of governance, but a desecration of civic virtue, a calculated erosion of institutional memory, and a contemptuous repudiation of the ballot as a sacred instrument of popular will.

Tanzania’s democratic soul has not been lost; it has been mutilated, and the scalpel bears the fingerprints of the very custodians entrusted to protect it.

From Nyerere to Suluhu: A Timeline of Democratic Erosion

• 1961 – Independence from Britain
  • Tanganyika gains independence under Julius Nyerere; later merges with Zanzibar to form Tanzania in 1964.
  • One-party state established under the ruling Tanganyika African National Union (TANU), later CCM.
• 1962–1985 – Julius Nyerere (Founding President)
  • Charismatic pan-Africanist and architect of Ujamaa socialism.
  • Suppressed multiparty politics in favour of national unity but maintained moral authority and institutional integrity.
  • Championed liberation struggles across Southern Africa and co-founded the Organisation of African Unity (OAU).
• 1985–1995 – Ali Hassan Mwinyi
  • Oversaw economic liberalisation and structural adjustment programs.
  • Initiated political reforms that led to the reintroduction of multiparty democracy in 1992.
  • CCM retained dominance despite opening political space.
• 1995–2005 – Benjamin Mkapa
  • First multiparty elections held in 1995; CCM wins amid allegations of vote rigging.
  • Promoted technocratic governance and media liberalisation, but opposition remained marginalised.
• 2005–2015 – Jakaya Kikwete
  • Maintained CCM’s grip on power with overwhelming electoral victories.
  • Oversaw relative political openness but failed to implement deep electoral reforms.
  • Corruption scandals and internal party factionalism began to surface.
• 2015–2021 – John Pombe Magufuli
  • Elected on an anti-corruption and infrastructure platform.
  • Quickly turned authoritarian: banned opposition rallies, restricted media, and jailed critics.
  • The 2020 elections were widely condemned for a lack of transparency and suppression of dissent.
• 2021–Present – Samia Suluhu Hassan
  • Assumed presidency after Magufuli’s death; initially promised reform and reconciliation.
  • 2025 elections marked by:
    • Systematic exclusion of opposition candidates.
    • Internet shutdowns and media censorship.
    • Arrests and intimidation of civil society actors.
    • Violent post-election unrest and civic breakdown.
  • Presides over the most severe democratic backsliding in Tanzania’s post-independence history

Suluhu’s Regime: A Calculated Blueprint for Authoritarian Entrenchment

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s administration has not stumbled into repression; it has engineered it with surgical precision. What we are witnessing is not a series of unfortunate missteps but a deliberate architecture of authoritarian consolidation.

The exclusion of opposition stalwarts like Tundu Lissu under flimsy treason allegations, the orchestration of internet blackouts to paralyse civic mobilisation, and the deployment of live ammunition against unarmed citizens are not aberrations; they are the pillars of a regime that has institutionalised fear as a governing principle.

This is not governance. It is the weaponisation of state machinery to annihilate dissent, cloaked in the language of stability and development. Suluhu’s leadership is not merely administratively deficient; it is ethically void, strategically corrosive, and historically regressive.

Her presidency has become a textbook case in how democratic institutions are hollowed out from within by actors who claim reformist credentials while practising autocratic control.

More damning is her cynical invocation of gender as a political shield. Rather than advancing the cause of women in leadership, Suluhu has instrumentalised her identity to deflect scrutiny while presiding over the most repressive administration in Tanzania’s post-independence history.

Her actions have not shattered glass ceilings; they have reinforced iron cages. The symbolic victory of a woman ascending to the presidency has been tragically undermined by the substantive erosion of civic freedoms under her watch.

This is not a feminist milestone. It is a cautionary tale, a stark reminder that representation without accountability is a hollow triumph. Suluhu’s regime has set back the gender equity discourse by decades, casting a long shadow over future female leadership across the continent.

Her presidency will not be remembered for breaking barriers, but for erecting new ones, against opposition, against civil society, and against the democratic aspirations of her own people.

Tanzania’s Accelerated Descent into Pariah Status

The notion that political stability can substitute for democratic legitimacy is a dangerous illusion, and Tanzania has now shattered it. Beneath the veneer of order lies a regime that has hollowed out the republic’s institutional core, replacing participatory governance with performative control.

The 2025 electoral debacle has catapulted Tanzania into the ignominious company of Zimbabwe, Eritrea, and Equatorial Guinea, states where elections are ritualistic charades, dissent is criminalised, and governance is indistinguishable from coercion.

This descent is not theoretical; it is material. The economic consequences will be swift and unforgiving. Investor confidence, once buoyed by Magufuli’s infrastructure zeal and anti-corruption rhetoric, is evaporating.

Tanzania’s reputation as a rising East African economic hub is now eclipsed by its image as a politically toxic environment. Diplomatic isolation looms, multilateral partnerships will fray, and the global goodwill painstakingly cultivated over decades is being squandered in real time.

What Suluhu’s regime calls stability is, in fact, a brittle authoritarian equilibrium, sustained not by legitimacy, but by suppression.

It is a model of governance that trades civic dignity for executive convenience, and in doing so, risks transforming Tanzania from a regional anchor into a cautionary tale of democratic collapse.

Digital Repression and the Architecture of Cyber-Authoritarianism in Africa

The internet shutdown orchestrated during Tanzania’s recent electoral cycle is not an isolated incident, but rather a stark manifestation of a growing trend of cyber-authoritarianism across the African continent.

From Harare to Addis Ababa, ruling regimes have increasingly weaponised digital infrastructure to suppress dissent, obscure electoral processes, and fracture civic mobilisation.

These deliberate connectivity blackouts, often cloaked in the language of national security, are in fact strategic assaults on transparency and democratic accountability.

Tanzania’s digital blackout was not a defensive measure against external threats; it was a calculated act of information control, a digital coup that undermined the integrity of the electoral process.

Such actions reflect a broader continental pattern in which authoritarian governments deploy digital repression as a tool to neutralise opposition, silence critical voices, and insulate themselves from scrutiny.

This war on political expression and the free flow of information is not only disturbing in its brazenness, but also structurally corrosive.

When a nation is plunged into digital darkness, the consequences reverberate far beyond the political sphere. Economic activity stalls, financial systems falter, and investor confidence erodes.

In Tanzania, the blackout heightened perceptions of political risk among international stakeholders, casting doubt on the country’s commitment to democratic norms and rule-based governance.

In an era where digital connectivity underpins both commerce and civic life, such authoritarian tactics are not merely repressive; they are economically reckless and geopolitically short-sighted.

Youth Betrayed: Tanzania’s Demographic Time Bomb

Tanzania’s political architecture continues to marginalise its most populous and potentially transformative demographic, its youth.

Despite comprising most of the population, young Tanzanians remain systematically excluded from meaningful political participation, policy formulation, and leadership succession.

This exclusion is not merely a strategic oversight; it is a perilous miscalculation with long-term implications for national stability and democratic resilience.

In a country characterised by a bottom-heavy demographic pyramid, the failure to integrate youth into governance structures undermines the very foundations of inclusive development.

The current administration under President Samia Suluhu Hassan appears to have entrenched a gerontocratic model of leadership,  prioritising continuity over renewal, and hierarchy over innovation.

This approach not only stifles the dynamism and aspirations of a generation poised to redefine Tanzania’s future but also exacerbates political alienation, economic disenfranchisement, and civic disillusionment.

The consequences are profound. A youthful population denied agency becomes a volatile force, one that may eventually express its frustrations through protest, migration, or disengagement from formal institutions.

In this context, the demographic dividend risks mutating into a demographic liability.

Without deliberate efforts to cultivate generational leadership, reform political party structures, and institutionalise youth representation, Tanzania risks squandering its most strategic asset.

Suluhu’s Personality Cult: The Illusion of Authority

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s administration has increasingly come to resemble a personality cult, an insular configuration of power anchored not in visionary leadership or democratic renewal, but in loyalty to the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its entrenched elite.

Her inner circle, composed largely of long-serving CCM loyalists, appears bereft of ideological clarity or reformist conviction. This consolidation of influence reflects a governance model that privileges patronage over principle, and conformity over competence.

Suluhu’s leadership style, marked by opacity, caution, and punitive reflexes, suggests a troubling departure from institutional integrity.

Rather than cultivating a transparent and inclusive political culture, her administration has leaned into executive centralism and selective retribution, often sidelining dissenting voices within both the party and civil society.

The result is a hollow throne: a presidency that commands authority but lacks transformative ambition.

This mode of governance is not merely timid;  it is strategically vindictive. It weaponises state institutions to entrench control while evading accountability.

In place of a coherent national vision, the regime projects a defensive posture, governing through exclusion and fear rather than inspiration and reform.

Such a trajectory risks deepening public cynicism, eroding democratic norms, and stalling the generational renewal that Tanzania’s political system so urgently requires.

The Illegitimacy of Victory: Tanzania’s Democratic Unravelling

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s electoral ascendancy cannot be credibly interpreted as a triumph of democratic will. Rather, it reflects a deeply compromised political process marred by systematic repression, institutional capture, and civic intimidation.

The incarceration of opposition leaders, the silencing of independent media, and the coercion of voters through state apparatuses collectively render her mandate politically hollow and morally suspect.

This is not merely a crisis of electoral procedure; it is a crisis of legitimacy. Suluhu’s rule, much like the late Robert Mugabe’s in Zimbabwe, is shrouded in a cloud of democratic illegitimacy.

The absence of genuine contestation and the erosion of public trust in electoral institutions have transformed the ballot box from a symbol of choice into an instrument of control.

In such a context, the presidency becomes less a reflection of popular will and more a product of authoritarian engineering.

The post-election turbulence, manifested in violent protests, attacks on public infrastructure, including airports and police stations, and widespread civic unrest, is symptomatic of a polity in revolt.

These eruptions are not random acts of lawlessness; they are expressions of a deeper societal rupture, a collective repudiation of a political order that has forsaken accountability and transparency.

When the state loses its moral authority, the governed inevitably seek alternative avenues of expression, often outside the bounds of formal politics.

Tanzania’s democratic backsliding carries profound implications for regional stability, investor confidence, and the country’s international standing.

Without a credible commitment to electoral reform, institutional independence, and civic inclusion, the spectre of unrest will continue to haunt the nation’s political landscape.

Regional Silence: The Complicity of Continental Institutions

The African Union (AU) and the East African Community (EAC), two of Africa’s most prominent regional bodies, have responded to Tanzania’s electoral violence with a troubling inertia that borders on complicity.

Their muted reaction to the suppression of opposition, civic unrest, and democratic backsliding is not merely disappointing; it constitutes a profound abdication of their normative responsibilities.

In failing to condemn or intervene meaningfully, these institutions have allowed authoritarianism to metastasise under the guise of sovereignty and stability.

This silence is not neutral; it is political. It signals a tacit endorsement of impunity and undermines the credibility of continental frameworks ostensibly designed to uphold democratic governance, human rights, and the rule of law.

The AU’s Peace and Security Council and the EAC’s electoral observer missions have too often defaulted to ceremonial posturing, issuing tepid communiqués that neither reflect the gravity of the crises nor offer actionable remedies.

Such performative diplomacy erodes public trust and diminishes the moral authority of these institutions.

If Africa’s regional bodies are to remain relevant in the 21st century, they must evolve from passive observers into proactive guarantors of democratic norms.

This requires institutional courage: the willingness to censure member states, deploy investigative missions, and impose political consequences for electoral misconduct.

It also demands a reimagining of sovereignty, not as a shield for repression, but as a platform for accountability and shared progress.

The credibility of the AU and EAC hinges not on their declarations, but on their capacity to act. In the face of democratic erosion, silence is not diplomacy; it is betrayal.

A Three-Tiered Prescription for Democratic Recovery

Tanzania’s democratic crisis demands a structured and principled response, one that transcends reactive condemnation and embraces a strategic roadmap for institutional renewal. This corrective framework unfolds across three interlinked temporal horizons: immediate stabilisation, medium-term reform, and long-term transformation.

In the short term, the imperative is to restore civic trust and political legitimacy. This begins with President Samia Suluhu Hassan either resigning or initiating a transitional government capable of stewarding the country toward credible elections.

Such a gesture would signal a commitment to national healing and democratic restoration. Concurrently, opposition leaders must be reinstated, and political prisoners released, reaffirming the sanctity of pluralism.

Media freedoms, gutted by censorship and intimidation, must be urgently restored, alongside the lifting of curfews and internet blackouts that have stifled public discourse and economic activity.

These actions are not merely symbolic; they are foundational to re-establishing the rule of law and reversing the erosion of democratic norms.

In the medium term, institutional recalibration becomes essential. The electoral commission must undergo a comprehensive overhaul to ensure independence, transparency, and professional integrity. This includes revising appointment procedures, enhancing oversight mechanisms, and embedding civic accountability.

Governance structures must be reconfigured to reflect Tanzania’s demographic realities, with mandatory youth quotas that empower the country’s largest and most underrepresented constituency.

Moreover, the enactment of robust civic education programs and digital rights legislation will equip citizens with the tools to engage critically, resist repression, and safeguard their freedoms in an increasingly digital political landscape.

In the long term, Tanzania must embark on a constitutional reimagining that curtails executive overreach and fortifies institutional checks and balances. This involves revisiting the architecture of presidential powers, strengthening parliamentary oversight, and embedding judicial independence.

Regional bodies such as the African Union and East African Community must also be reformed to serve not as ceremonial observers but as active guarantors of democratic integrity, capable of enforcing norms and sanctioning violations.

Finally, the cultivation of gender-sensitive leadership pipelines rooted in democratic values will ensure that governance is not only inclusive but also resilient, ethical, and future-facing.

Together, these tiers form a coherent blueprint for democratic renewal, one that confronts authoritarian drift with principled resistance and charts a path toward participatory governance, institutional integrity, and generational justice.

A Call for Continental Reckoning

Tanzania’s democratic unravelling is not an anomaly; it is a harbinger. It signals a broader continental crisis in which democracy is not merely eroding under pressure but being actively dismantled by the very custodians entrusted to uphold it.

Across Africa, the architecture of governance is being hollowed out from within, as ruling elites manipulate institutions, suppress dissent, and weaponise state power to entrench their dominance.

This is not the slow death of democracy; it is its assassination, deliberate, methodical, and cloaked in the language of stability.

To remain silent in the face of this regression is to be complicit. The normalisation of authoritarianism, through muted regional responses, performative diplomacy, and the cynical invocation of sovereignty, must be resisted with moral clarity and strategic resolve.

Africa cannot afford to betray its democratic promise. The legacies of Julius Nyerere, Kwame Nkrumah, and Haile Selassie were not built on platitudes, but on principled defiance, intellectual courage, and a vision of self-determined governance rooted in dignity and justice.

To honour their memory is to act, to speak truth to power, to defend civic space, and to reimagine the state as a servant of the people, not their captor.

Tanzania must not be allowed to ossify into a cautionary tale of squandered potential and institutional decay. It must rise again, not as a republic of fear, but as a republic of rights.

The Tanzanian people, whose resilience has withstood repression and betrayal, must be empowered to reclaim their sovereignty and reassert their voice in the national narrative. This moment, fraught as it is with uncertainty, must be seized as a turning point, not a terminus.

Let history record that when democracy stood on the precipice, Africa did not look away. Let it be remembered that from the shadows of suppression, a new civic awakening emerged, bold, generational, and unyielding in its pursuit of justice.

About the Writer

Wellington Muzengeza is a Pan-African Political Risk Analyst and urban strategist with expertise in infrastructure policy, leadership succession, and citizen-led development. He provides strategic insight into governance reform, institutional resilience, and post-liberation statecraft across Africa. His published analyses dissect the political dynamics of leadership transitions, the symbolic power of liberation memory, and the pathways to continental renewal, making him a trusted voice on Africa’s evolving risk landscape.