Collapse of Invictus’ US$500M deal exposes Africa’s investment accountability gap

HARARE – The collapse of a proposed investment deal between Australian gas explorer Invictus Energy and Qatari-linked Al Mansour Holdings has exposed serious gaps in how multi-billion-dollar investment pledges to African governments are vetted, verified and enforced, Nehanda Radio can reveal.

London-based go-to-market and growth strategist Munyaradzi Hoto argues that at the centre of the fallout is a simple question that Invictus Energy ultimately asked and walked away over, but which at least six African governments apparently did not: where is the money?

Hoto said the failed transaction demonstrated a sharp contrast between binding, regulated commercial deals and non-binding investment pledges often signed through memoranda of understanding.

The deal’s collapse, after five months of negotiations and three settlement deferrals, would normally merit little more than a footnote in the commodities pages. But Invictus was not Al Mansour’s only commitment. It was merely the only one that required actual money to change hands,” Hoto stated.

The Victoria Falls Stock Exchange listed company formally terminated negotiations with Al Mansour Holdings in January 2026 after five months of discussions failed to result in payment under an agreed subscription arrangement.

The Perth-based company had initially announced in August 2025 that Al Mansour would acquire a 19.9 percent stake in Invictus for A$37.8 million, alongside a proposal to provide up to US$500 million in future funding for the Cabora Bassa gas project in northern Zimbabwe.

However, Invictus said the proposed investment never progressed beyond repeated settlement deferrals.

According to the company, Al Mansour sought revised terms that would have increased its potential ownership to as much as 50 percent, while failing to meet earlier payment obligations.

In a notice to shareholders, Invictus stated that the terms being proposed were “contrary to applicable ASX Listing Rules and ASIC regulatory requirements” and included non-commercial provisions that the board considered unacceptable.

The company concluded that Al Mansour did not intend to fulfil its contractual obligations under the original agreement and terminated the deal with immediate effect.

The Invictus transaction stood out from other high-profile commitments announced by Al Mansour Holdings across Africa in 2025.

During August and September of that year, the firm publicly pledged more than US$100 billion in prospective investments across six African countries, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Botswana and Burundi.

Unlike the Invictus agreement, those commitments were largely formalised through memoranda of understanding, which do not require binding capital deployment.

Analysts noted that memoranda of understanding typically lack defined funding schedules, enforceable milestones or penalties for non-performance, making them difficult to test against regulatory and financial scrutiny.

Invictus’ deal, by contrast, was subject to Australian securities regulation and required actual capital injection within specified timeframes.

The company said this regulatory framework ultimately exposed inconsistencies between Al Mansour’s public investment claims and its ability to execute a binding transaction.

“Meanwhile, six African governments signed memoranda of understanding without any documented verification of Al Mansour’s capacity to deliver.

“The contrast is stark: the Australian Securities Exchange, through its listing rules, created accountability. The absence of equivalent mechanisms in government dealings created vulnerability,” Hoto added.

Despite the collapse of the proposed partnership, Invictus said the underlying Cabora Bassa gas project remains intact.

The company holds environmental approvals, a production sharing agreement with the Zimbabwean government, and confirmed gas resources at Mukuyu. Local institutions, including the Mutapa Investment Fund and Mangwana Capital, have already committed funding to the project.

Invictus said it is now engaging alternative strategic and funding partners as it seeks to advance the project toward commercial development.

Hoto said the episode highlighted the need for stricter verification mechanisms in large-scale investment negotiations, particularly where public expectations are raised.

“The question is not whether African energy resources deserve investment. Southern Africa’s power deficits constrain mining output, industrial development, and household welfare across the region,” he noted.

“The question is whether that investment will come with the verification and accountability that distinguish genuine capital deployment from elaborate press releases.

“Six African governments learned that distinction in the summer of 2025. The cost of their education remains to be calculated.”