Trump, Zelensky, and the death of Pope Francis: Shaping the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Speculative Projection by Dr Sibangilizwe Moyo

Executive Summary

The passing of Pope Francis has shifted the global geopolitical landscape at a critical moment for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The funeral of Pope Francis, attended by U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, marks a pivotal moment in international diplomacy.

Their public reconciliation signals a possible reshaping of U.S.-Ukrainian relations, with profound consequences for the war’s trajectory.

This analysis projects several potential outcomes based on the evolving dynamics between Trump and Zelensky, offering insights into possible policy directions and key indicators to monitor in the coming months.

Immediate Global Impact: Power Vacuum and Escalating Tensions

The death of Pope Francis removes a crucial moral voice advocating for peace, creating a temporary diplomatic vacuum. This vacuum may inadvertently encourage both Russia and Ukraine to escalate military operations in the absence of a moderating influence.

The Vatican, traditionally a key player in global conflict resolution, will now struggle to fill the gap, allowing both sides to recalibrate their strategies.

Key Impact Areas:

Vatican Diplomacy: The absence of a central moral arbiter removes the stabilising force of the Holy See in diplomatic negotiations.

Geopolitical Opportunism: Both Russia and Ukraine are likely to exploit this void, intensifying military actions while the global community watches in uncertainty.

The Funeral as Political Theatre: A Defining Moment for U.S.-Ukrainian Relations

The meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the funeral is a high-profile diplomatic moment with the potential to reshape the course of the war. Depending on the nature of their interaction, the encounter could either solidify or destabilise the existing international response to the war.

Scenario A: Trump and Zelensky Publicly Reconcile

A visible show of unity, marked by a strong handshake, shared moments of reflection, and subtle gestures of mutual support, signals a recalibration of U.S. policy. Under Trump, U.S. involvement in Ukraine could dramatically shift, offering Ukraine more tangible support, albeit with strings attached.

Strategic Implications:

Military Support: Trump’s renewed support for Ukraine could be heavily conditional, focused on securing Ukrainian reforms, anti-corruption measures, and alignment with Western interests. Expect tactical aid, including advanced weapons systems and increased intelligence-sharing.

Russian Calculus: The Kremlin’s immediate response would likely be to escalate its military campaigns, potentially advancing on existing territorial holdings before U.S. involvement reasserts itself. Moscow will likely seek to “lock in” its gains during a moment of Western uncertainty.

European Reaction: European capitals, particularly those with a history of hesitation (Hungary, Slovakia), would have to reassess their positions. A stronger U.S. stance could reinvigorate the European front, but scepticism over Trump’s long-term commitment could hinder full alignment.

Medium-Term Forecast: Negotiation and Strategic Repositioning

In the medium term, Trump’s involvement could drive a grand bargain between Ukraine and Russia, in which a combination of territorial concessions and security guarantees are proposed. However, this would likely lead to domestic unrest within Ukraine, as factions opposed to such a settlement may seek to disrupt negotiations.

Key Developments to Monitor:

Internal Ukrainian Dissent: Nationalist groups and veterans’ movements within Ukraine would fiercely oppose any territorial compromises, leading to potential destabilisation and political upheaval.

Negotiation Framework: Expect significant pressure from both the U.S. and Russia for Ukraine to engage in formal peace talks. Trump’s transactional approach may facilitate a compromise settlement but could fail to address long-term political fractures within Ukrainian society.

Russian Geostrategy: A potential Russian retreat from some territories in exchange for security guarantees could represent a tactical repositioning aimed at achieving broader strategic goals, including reduced Western influence in the region.

Long-Term Projection: A New Security Paradigm and the Price of Betrayal

In the long term, a resolution brokered by Trump could result in a modified European security architecture, with a neutral Ukraine, diminished NATO presence, and a Russia that is not fully isolated but rather reintegrated into global power dynamics.

The moral vacuum left by Pope Francis’s death could ultimately define the new geopolitical reality: one where power outweighs principle, and strategic pragmatism overrides moral imperatives.

Potential Long-Term Outcomes:

Revised European Security Framework: NATO, in its current form, could be weakened, with the U.S. adopting a more bilateral approach to European security, using selective engagements with individual countries.

Undermined Moral Consensus: Without a unified moral authority, the international community could be left to navigate a more fragmented world order, where diplomatic manoeuvring becomes increasingly transactional and pragmatic.

Ukraine’s Fragile Future: Ukraine could face long-term political instability if its leadership is perceived as having sacrificed sovereignty for a temporary peace settlement. The potential for further radicalisation or resistance within Ukraine cannot be ruled out.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty

The public reconciliation between Trump and Zelensky at Pope Francis’s funeral may signal a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the ultimate outcome remains uncertain.

The future depends on whether this gesture of unity will be followed by genuine diplomatic engagement or if it will ultimately serve as a fleeting moment of political theatre that leaves Ukraine exposed.

What to Watch: Key Indicators

U.S. Military and Financial Aid: Track the specifics of U.S. support for Ukraine in the coming months. Is it transactional or strategic?

Diplomatic Engagements: Monitor private communications between Kyiv and Washington to gauge sincerity in long-term support.

Russian Military Movements: Russian offensives in the next 90 days will reveal Moscow’s reaction to shifting U.S. involvement.

Ukrainian Domestic Unrest: Watch for signs of growing domestic opposition to a potential peace settlement or perceived U.S. betrayal.

European Responses: Pay close attention to how EU members, especially France and Germany, position themselves in light of new U.S. policy.