Public borrowing could surge by £30bn a year if there is a no-deal Brexit, the country’s spending watchdog says.
It said this was “not necessarily the most likely outcome” but also “by no means the worst case scenario”.
The UK is set to leave the European Union on 31 October.
Chances of a no-deal outcome appear to have risen recently, after both Tory leadership contenders said they would be willing to leave the EU without a deal.
The OBR was created in 2010 to give independent analysis of the UK’s public finances.
In its first assessment of the economic impact of a no-deal scenario, the OBR used IMF analysis that shows the UK economy would contract by 2% in 2020 before recovering in 2021.
This would come as tariffs of 4% were imposed on goods traded with the EU – up from zero currently – although the IMF does not expect there to be disruption at the border.
In this scenario, the OBR said that “heightened uncertainty and declining confidence” would deter investment, while higher trade barriers with the EU would “weigh on exports”.
“Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply,” it said.
It said this could push up public sector borrowing, leaving debt 12% higher by 2024.
The OBR also warned that both Conservative leadership contenders had made “a series of uncosted proposals for tax cuts and spending increases that would be likely to increase government borrowing by tens of billions of pounds if implemented”.
The forecast used by the OBR is less severe than those of the Bank of England and the Treasury.
In November, the Bank said a no-deal outcome could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the 2008 financial crisis.
The economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, the Bank said.
The Treasury meanwhile has predicted a £90bn hit to the economy by 2035 – although prominent eurosceptics dispute this view.
In a comment piece for the Telegraph newspaper earlier this week, Conservative backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg called the forecast “silliness”, adding that a no-deal scenario could instead boost the economy by £80bn.
Chancellor Philip Hammond later tweeted that he found this view “terrifying”, given Mr Rees-Mogg is tipped for a role in government in the future.
The chances of a no-deal appear to have risen in recent weeks after both candidates in the race to replace Theresa May hardened their positions on the controversial Irish backstop – an insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit.
Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson both said the backstop was “dead”, but the EU said it would not support any deal that excludes it.
In an interview with the BBC’s Panorama programme – conducted in May before the start of the Conservative leadership contest – the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said the UK would have to “face the consequences” if it opted to leave without a deal.
Mr Barnier said the thrice-rejected withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May was the “only way to leave the EU in an orderly manner”. BBC News