The sober truth about the Afrobarometer report

By Benjamin Semwayo

Zanu PF will obviously crow because of the findings contained in the recent Afrobarometer report on Zimbabwe, but it does not take a rocket scientist to see that there were without a doubt some inherent shortcomings in the survey.

To begin with, the researchers set themselves an impossible task because with the situation obtaining in Zimbabwe as a result of an intolerant government, it is inevitable to arrive at erroneous conclusions when you ask questions about the popularity of Mugabe and his Zanu PF.

This is because it is an understatement to say Zimbabweans are over-spied upon and most will never disclose the truth in their heart of hearts to a stranger seeking their true opinion on a murderous, Mafia-like regime like Zanu PF.

There have been thousands of political casualties who have paid with their lives for simply making utterances at variance with Zanu PF and Itai Dzamara, it is feared, is the latest statistic. The research question they chose is taboo in Zimbabwe and it does not lend itself well to the accurate capture of the people’s views.

Afrobarometer is fully conversant with the political climate in Zimbabwe and the researchers certainly knew that in Zimbabwe it is suicidal to express views against the ruling party. It would be interesting to know what they did to ensure that fear was not a factor that influenced interviewees’ responses.

They could not possibly have been in the dark about Zanu PF’s reign of terror because it is well documented. For example, travel guide information to foreigners travelling to Zimbabwe says,   ‘Be careful with your opinion, as speaking against the government is a crime’. (http://wikitravel.org/en/Zimbabwe)

The British government gives the following advice to its citizens:

‘You should avoid political activity, or activities which could be construed as such, including political discussions in public places, or criticism of the President. It is an offence to make derogatory or insulting comments about President Mugabe or to carry material considered to be offensive to the President’s office. An open hand is the political symbol of the opposition, MDC-Tsvangirai, and a friendly wave may therefore be misinterpreted.’ (https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/zimbabwe/safety-and-securityllow)

These are only a few examples, and they clearly say when you are in Zimbabwe forget about freedom of speech: it can cost you your life.

After three decades of being brutalised and seeing fellow citizens dying for their views, the fear of Zanu PF has become engraved in the people’s DNA and very few would be bold enough to even think about defying the dreaded party, which makes people like Itai true national heroes.

So the suggestion that Mugabe is trusted by 63% of Zimbabweans is as laughable as it is ridiculous. If he is so popular why would he enlist the services of Nikuv to win elections? Why would he unleash the army, police and the CIO on the defenceless nation at every election time?

Why would he so adamantly refuse to level the political playing field? Why would he cherry-pick election observers from among his partial friends?

Why would he frog-march unwilling citizens to his rallies, including innocent school children who are only interested in learning to read and write, not sitting in the blazing sun with empty stomachs and being forced to listen to a senile man whose only interest is using them to perpetuate his cruel rule?

Why would he be guarded by a whole battalion armed to the teeth? Why would he not have democratic processes in his own party? The answer is simple: no-one wants him.

While it is obvious that the results of Afrobarometer’s survey do not reflect the true situation on the ground, opposition parties should not just dismiss it and continue with business as usual. They should work tirelessly to create a political atmosphere in which people freely express their political views without fear of disappearing.

That is possible only with Zanu PF ousted. All political parties should give serious thought to the idea of the grand coalition, which is the only viable solution to the problems presented by Zanu PF.