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09 May 2008
By Clemence Manyukwe (Fingaz)
THE on-going violence is unlikely to alter the political preferences of a significant number of voters in the impending presidential run-off.
A terror campaign is currently underway, especially in the rural areas following the March 29 polls that saw ZANU-PF losing control of parliament for the first time since independence in 1980.
Presidential poll results, released last Friday after more than a month’s delay also showed the incumbent, President Robert Mugabe, losing to longtime rival, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
A second round of voting is to take place because, officially, no candidate garnered more than 50 percent of the vote to clinch an outright victory and make a second round of voting as stipulated under Electoral Laws, unnecessary.
According to the Zimbabwe Electoral commission (ZEC) Tsvangirai got 47,9 percent of the vote, while the ZANU-PF leader polled 43,2 percent setting the stage for a run-off.
Independent presidential aspirant Simba Makoni received 8,3 percent while Langton Toungana garnered 0,6 percent of the total votes.
After March 29, violence flared up in different parts of the country with church leaders saying some people have been murdered as the attacks have escalated.
Heads of the Zimbabwe Council of Churches, the Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops Conference and the Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe said in a statement released a fortnight ago: “People are being abducted, tortured, humiliated…they are told that they voted for the ‘wrong candidate’ and should not repeat it in the run-off for president and in some cases people are being murdered.”
The church leaders blamed war veterans and youth militias whom they said they have set up torture bases in the countryside.
But despite the violence and killings, analysts doubt that this will significantly affect voting patterns.
The president of the Zimbabwe Peace Project (ZPP) Jestina Mukoko whose organisation has been documenting acts of violence said although some people would be swayed because of safety and security considerations, that would not make a difference on the overall scenario.
She however, said the disturbances could lead to voter apathy. “My other concern is that a lot of people are being disenfranchised. Homes are being torched and some people are losing their identity documents in the process. Others will not vote out of fear,” Mukoko said.
Legal practitioner and electoral law expert Chris Mhike said the resort to violence was calculated to render the environment unsuitable for conducting a free and fair poll.
He however, noted that despite the use of violence in previous elections people had still gone ahead to vote against the ruling party.
“In my view, there certainly will be a portion of the population that will be cowed into submission by the on-going violence, but on the whole the strategy will not work,” Mhike said.“The use of violence is inimical to the traditions, practices and customs of holding free and fair elections at regional and international level,” Mhike said.
A political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe Eldred Masunungure said the race will be tighter as a result of the violence. “There will be a close race. It is difficult to predict who will win at this moment.”
Masunungure said the winner is likely to be determined by the candidate Makoni will back, given the number of votes — 270 470 — the former ZANU-PF politburo member received in the March 29 polls.
He said in terms of the electorate, voters could be categorised into core voters of a particular party and marginal, non-committed voters or new voters for a particular candidate.
Masunungure explained that core voters — those who are committed to a particular party and are motivated by its ideology — are less likely to be swayed than new voters.
“Those who are passive, mild, the non partisan — the new voters — would be swayed,” Masunungure said.“The epicentre of the violence has not been in Matabeleland or urban areas where the MDC has its core support. In Mashonaland Central and other parts where there is violence, there was a major shift from ZANU-PF to the opposition by new voters
“The expectation is to influence “stray voters” and bring them back home to ZANU-PF.”
Although ZANU-PF spokesperson Patrick Chinamasa could not be reached for comment, on Monday night state television aired comments by First Lady Grace Mugabe absolving the ruling party of responsibility for the violence.
But former ZANU-PF secretary general Edgar Tekere, who in 1990 moved a motion in parliament against alleged ZANU-PF violence against his supporters after he challenged President Mugabe in that year’s presidential poll said the party has a tradition of using violence when the odds are stacked against it.
Tekere said the use of violence would not work, as people are “tired” of ZANU-PF rule.
He said the on-going unlawful acts are likely to prod even those who had voted for the ruling party on March 29 to switch sides in the run-off. “I said it a long time ago, that (President) Mugabe does not like competition. The run-off will be very bad because he is unashamed about using violence. But even those who voted for him will see that he is a bad person and will not vote for him,” Tekere said.- Financial Gazette.
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