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01 July 2008
By MacDonald Dzirutwe
HARARE (Reuters) - African pressure and Zimbabwe's economic collapse are likely to force President Robert Mugabe to the negotiating table after a widely condemned re-election that will only deepen Zimbabwe's crisis.
Mugabe, who has ruled the former British colony since independence in 1980, was inaugurated on Sunday after sweeping to what electoral officials said was an overwhelming victory.
The vote on Friday, in which he was the only candidate, was condemned as a sham around the world.
Even before he was sworn in, the former guerrilla chief was under pressure from Africa to negotiate with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who withdrew a week ago because of violence that he said killed nearly 90 of his supporters.
Analysts believe Mugabe risked international opprobrium and unprecedented African criticism to go ahead with the vote so that he could strengthen his hand for those negotiations.
He wasted no time in saying in his inaugural speech that he was ready for talks.
But negotiations with Tsvangirai will need the backing of hardline security officers who are believed to have taken over his campaign when he suffered a humiliating loss to Tsvangirai in the first round poll on March 29.
Any transitional deal will have to offer those officers and hawks inside Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party immunity from future prosecution on human rights charges, analysts say. "There is no doubt the economy will force him to the negotiating table and so he has to convince the hardliners that 'we will have to negotiate or perish'," said Eldred Masunungure, a leading political analyst.
"The economy will be Mugabe's Achilles heel, he has little leg room to wriggle. He had hoped his election would bring legitimacy, that has not happened," he added. Zimbabweans are enduring hyper-inflation -- officially at 165,000 percent but analysts say it is really around 9 million percent -- four in five people are jobless and there are acute shortages of food and foreign currency.
A loaf of bread costs 150 times more now than during the first round of elections on March 29. Millions of Zimbabweans have fled to neighbouring states and thousands more are expected to leave after the vote dashed any hopes of a rapid economic improvement.
Mugabe is under strong pressure now from his African peers to engage Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), in negotiations that could lead to a power sharing transitional deal and eventually fresh elections.
The violence after the first round of elections and the conduct of the run-off have brought down unprecedented attacks on Mugabe from fellow leaders who have held him in awe for decades as hero in the fight to end white rule.
"You get the sense that the regime is being besieged from all fronts, even from regional friends. Mugabe, despite his belligerence, cannot resist all that diplomatic pressure and expect to survive," John Makumbe, a political science lecturer and long-time Mugabe critic, told Reuters.
Political commentators said talks should focus on setting up a transitional government to draft a new constitution, repeal repressive laws and hold fresh elections within two years. Mugabe seems to favour a government of national unity in which the MDC is a junior partner but that arrangement, which opposition sources say had also been floated by South Africa's Thabo Mbeki, has been rejected by Tsvangirai.
The opposition leader has been quoted as saying he favours making Mugabe a ceremonial president, while he becomes executive prime minister. Whatever happens, the opposition, which now controls parliament, would need significant representation for the transition to work, analysts say.
Zimbabwe's security chiefs have openly campaigned for Mugabe and are said to detest Tsvangirai. They will also have to be brought round to smooth any transition. "The transition should secure the future of the security establishment, there is too much apprehension," Masunungure said. "The current top brass within the security forces should be eased out finally and moderates brought in."
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