The trajectory to a Tsvangirai presidency
By Darlington Nyambiya
As the momentum for the formation of a Grand Coalition gathers pace in Zimbabwe for the 2018 Elections and as the ruling party continues to press the self destruct button, it is only with wisdom that we take a close look at the man more likely to lead the coalition. Morgan Tsvangirai is the front runner to be the presidential candidate of the Grand Coalition due to his long track record in the opposition trenches and being the leader of the biggest opposition party, the MDCT.
Morgan Tsvangirai is one of Africa’s leading democracy struggle icons who is respected worldwide for starring Zanu PF strong arm tactics in the eye of the storm and fighting the ruling party utilising peaceful democratic tools. Tsvangirai is credited by most Zimbabweans for not turning Zimbabwe into another war torn Somalia by not engaging in an armed struggle to wrestle power from the ruling party despite provocation from the ruling party; tremendous pressure from the MDC hardliners and the Youth league.
Most Zimbabweans including ruling party supporters and key players in state institutions agree that Morgan Tsvangirai deserves to be President of Zimbabwe in the future due to his long fight for democracy in the opposition trenches and his principled stance to fight a violent dictatorship using peaceful means. However, most Zimbabweans disagree on how the trajectory to a Tsvangirai Presidency will take place. In other words, Zimbabweans do not agree on the best strategy Morgan Tsvangirai needs to take to be Zimbabwe’s next president. Zimbabweans agree to disagree on Morgan Tsvangirai’s trajectory to the Presidency.
Morgan Tsvangirai
Morgan Richard Tsvangirai was born on 10 March 1952 and is aged 65 years old. He was Prime Minister of Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2013. He is President of the Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai (MDC-T) and a key figure in the opposition to President Robert Mugabe. Tsvangirai was the MDC candidate in the controversial 2002 presidential election, losing to Mugabe. He later contested the first round of the 2008 presidential election as the MDC-T candidate, taking 47.8% of the vote according to official results, placing him ahead of Mugabe, who received 43.2%.
Morgan Tsvangirai is also known for his role in the Zimbabwean trade union movement, where he held the position of branch chairman of the Associated Mine Workers’ Union and was later elected into the executive of the National Mine Workers’ Union. In 1989 he became the Secretary-General of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, the umbrella trade union organisation of Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai led the ZCTU away from the ruling ZANU-PF. As his power and that of the movement grew, his relationship with the Government deteriorated
Morgan Tsvangirai helped form the National Constitutional Assembly(NCA), it was established in 1997 and he chaired the NCA Task Force. The NCA gathered individual Zimbabwean citizens and civic organizations including labour movements, student and youth groups, women’s groups, churches, business groups and human rights organizations. These individuals and groups formed the NCA to campaign for constitutional reform after realizing that the political, social and economic problems affecting Zimbabwe were mainly a result of the defective Lancaster House constitution and could only be resolved through a new and democratic constitution.
Tsvangirai stepped down as the NCA Chairman after being elected president of the MDC. In 1999, Tsvangirai founded and organised the Movement for Democratic Change, an opposition party opposed to President Robert Mugabe and the ZANU-PF ruling party. He helped to defeat the February 2000 constitutional referendum, successfully campaigning against it along with the National Constitutional Assembly. Tsvangirai lost the March 2002 presidential election to Mugabe. The election provoked widespread allegations] that Mugabe had rigged the election through the use of violence, media bias, and manipulation of the voters’ roll leading to abnormally high pro-Mugabe turnout in some areas.
Regional Comparison
Raila Odinga Odinga: Kenya’s main opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai’s 18 long years in the opposition trenches of Zimbabwean politics is usually compared to that of Kenya’s main opposition leader Raila Odinga Odinga, in that their political careers have taken an almost similar path. Both Tsvangirai and Odinga served as Prime Ministers of National Unity Governments in their respective countries after the elections they had won were apparently rigged by the entrenched ruling party establishments. Odinga was first elected as the Member of Parliament for Langata in 1992, serving as Minister of Energy from 2001 to 2002 and as Minister of Roads, Public Works, and Housing from 2003 to 2005.
Odinga was the main opposition candidate in the 2007 presidential election, running against incumbent Mwai Kibaki. Following a violence-marred election and post-poll crisis, Odinga was appointed Prime Minister in April 2008 in a power-sharing deal with Mwai Kibaki, serving as Supervisor and Coordinator of a national unity coalition government. In the subsequent presidential election 5 years later he was placed second against Uhuru Kenyatta, Kibaki’s favoured successor, garnering 5,340,546 votes, which represented 43.28% of the total votes cast. Like Tsvangirai, Odinga will be running for his fourth campaign to be president of Kenya and his main impediment to the State presidency in Kenya will be anchored on vote rigging by the ruling party.
Akufo-Addo: Current Ghana President
Morgan Tsvangirai can however take solace from long time opposition leader and recently elected Ghana President Akufo Addo that there is always light at the end of the tunnel. President Akufo ran for the presidency four times in 1998, 2008, 2012 and lost but he finally won in 2016 to become Ghana’s President. And in similar fashion Tsvangirai has run for the presidency in 2002, 2008, 2013 and lost but needs to take advice from President Akufo on how to win on the fourth attempt.
In October 1998, Akufo-Addo competed for the presidential candidacy of the NPP and lost to John Kufuor, who subsequently won the December 2000 presidential election and assumed office as President of Ghana in January 2001. In 2007, he was the popular candidate tipped to win NPP’s presidential primaries. In 2008, Akufo-Addo represented NPP in a closely contested election against John Atta Mills of NDC. In the first round of voting, Akufo-Addo tallied 49.13%, leading Atta Mills with a slim margin that was below the constitutional threshold of 50% to become the outright winner.
Akufo-Addo was again NPP’s presidential candidate in the 2012 national elections against major rival NDC’s John Mahama, the successor the late Atta Mills. Mahama was declared the winner of the election, an outcome that was legally challenged by Akufo-Addo. The court case generated considerable controversy, and was finally decided by the Ghana Supreme Court in a narrow 5/4 decision in favour of Mahama. Akufo-Addo accepted the verdict in the interest of economic stability and international goodwill.
In March 2014, Akufo-Addo announced his decision to seek his party’s nomination for the fourth time ahead of the 2016 election. In the NPP primary conducted in October 2014, he was declared victor with 94.35% of the votes. He focused his campaign on the economy, promising to stabilize the country’s foreign exchange rate and to reduce unemployment levels. On 9 December 2016, sitting president Mahama conceded defeat to Akufo-Addo. Akufo-Addo won the election with 53.83% of the votes against Mahama’s 44.4%.
Impediments to Tsvangirai’s path to the Presidency
A) Military
Ahead of the 2002 hotly-contested presidential election, the late Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Vitalis Zvinavashe led the service chiefs in rescuing Mugabe, claiming his office was a “straitjacket” and no one without liberation struggle credentials would fit in. The military plays a significant role in Zanu PF internal politics and will resist a candidate who does not have liberation struggle credentials.
This declaration at that time was largely seen as a direct threat by the military generals to Morgan Tsvangirai since he was not part of the liberation struggle. However, the push by Grace Mugabe to succeed President Mugabe will open the door for popular opposition leader to succeed President Mugabe. The military is largely seen as one of the key state institutions that is impediment to Tsvangirai’s trajectory as state president.
B) Zimbabwe Elections Commission
On 29 March 2008 elections were held to elect the President and Parliament. However no official results were announced for more than a month after the first round. The failure to release results was strongly criticised by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which unsuccessfully sought an order from the High Court to force their release. An independent projection placed its leader Morgan Tsvangirai in the lead, but without the majority needed to avoid a second round, whilst the MDC declared that Tsvangirai won a narrow majority in the first round and initially refused to participate in any second round.
After the recount and the verification of the results, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announced on 2 May 2008 that Tsvangirai won 47.9% of the vote and Mugabe 43.2%. This month long delay to release the election results by the Zimbabwe Elections Commissions destroyed its credibility and left its reputation in tatters as the opposition and civil society accused it of massaging results to force a second round runoff. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is one of the main obstacles in Morgan Tsvangirai’s bid to become president as it is largely seen as pro Zanu PF.
C) Intimidation And Vote Buying
In rural areas Zanu PF is going to coerce chiefs and headmen to whip their subjects to vote for the ruling party. And the ruling party is also going to reinforce fear by reminding the rural electorate of the brutal beatings and harassment of opposition supporters in the brutal June 2008 presidential runoff. Zanu PF will manipulate the rural electorate by scaring rural folks into believing that the new BVR voting system will enable Government to indentify who they voted for. And the ruling party is also going to intimidate the rural electorate by telling them that if the ruling party loses the election, Zimbabwe will return to war.
In the 2018 elections, Zanu PF is likely to avoid high levels of public violence so that it does not to attract media and international attention, but it will likely engage in low intensity levels of beatings, abductions and harassment of low level coalition supporters so that the elections can pass as free, fair and transparent. The ruling party will also dish out goodies like rice, cooking oil and farming inputs to rural people. As seen in recent by elections in Bikita West and Mwenezi; intimidation and vote buying by the ruling party is largely seen as a major hurdle for Tsvangirai to be elected president.
D) State Media
The state media in Zimbabwe has seen varying amounts of control by successive governments, coming under tight restriction in recent years by the government of Robert Mugabe, particularly during the growing economic and political crisis in the country. The Zimbabwean constitution promotes freedom of the media and expression; however this is hampered by interference and the implementation of strict media laws.
The Zimbabwe State media does not give access to opposition parties but only publishes the ruling party’s views. And the opposition parties only have access to state media when it is negative press coverage. State media is seen as a disadvantage for Morgan Tsvangirai becoming president because of daily government propaganda against him and the opposition not being allowed to campaign on state media.
Tactics for Tsvangirai to be the next Presidency
1) Grand Coalition
A grand coalition is an arrangement in a multi-party parliamentary system in which the two largest political parties of opposing political ideologies unite in a coalition government. However, the term is most commonly used in countries where there are two dominant parties with different ideological orientations, and a number of smaller parties that have passed the election threshold to secure representation in the parliament.
The two large parties will each try to secure enough seats in any election to have a majority government alone, and if this fails each will attempt to form a coalition with smaller parties that have a similar ideological orientation. Because the two large parties will tend to differ on major ideological issues, and portray themselves as rivals, or even sometimes enemies, they will usually find it more difficult to agree on a common direction for a combined government with each other than with smaller parties.
Morgan Tsvangirai is advised to lead efforts to form a coalition that will combine all opposition parties’ capabilities under a Grand Coalition. The MDCT will bring on board: its massive support as the largest opposition party, 18 years of experience in trenches as opposition, 4 years experience in the Government of National Unity, a leader with national appeal in the form of Morgan Tsvangirai, over 70 current Mps and Senators, over a 100 nationwide councillors and robust countrywide structures.
The newly formed National People’s Party will bring on board: liberation struggle credentials, former ruling party members with inside information, nearly half the ruling party’s support base, modest support base as the second largest opposition party, informers in current government and state institutions, a leader with national appeal in the form of former Vice President Joice Mujuru and nationwide structures.
And the smaller parties will bring on board: ‘think tank’ capabilities, experienced politicians and nationwide structures. If these three entities combine to form a Grand Coalition, it will be the first step on a long torturous road to challenge Zanu PF’s dominance from power in the 2018 Elections.
2) Independent Political Consultants
Political consulting is a form of consulting that consists primarily of advising and assisting political campaigns. Although the most important role of political consultants is arguably the development and production of mass media largely by television, radio and direct mail; consultants advise campaigns on many other activities, ranging from opposition research and voter polling, to field strategy and get out the vote efforts.
Political consultants also promote the election of a candidate and this is achieved by planning campaign strategies, coordinating campaign staffs, and arranging meetings to publicize candidates or causes. Since internal political strategists in Zimbabwe’s opposition have failed in the past 37 years to device successful tactics to capture state power and ‘win’ elections ‘officially’ announced by the elections body, the Grand Coalition needs to look outside and bring on board independent experts to assist with running a successful political campaign.
Morgan Tsvangirai and the Grand Coalition need to employ the services of independent political consultants who are seasoned in political campaigns and have experience in beating entrenched dictatorships under the guise of democracy. Political consultants will assist with strategies on how to penetrate rural areas, energise the urban voter base and bring the under 40s to the voting booth. Political consultants will also assist with countering state media propaganda with a focussed election message via social media and the private press.
3) Confidence Building Measures
Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are actions taken to reduce fear of attack by both or more parties in a situation of tension with or without physical conflict. The term is most often used in the context of international politics, but is similar in logic to that of trust and interpersonal communication used to reduce conflictual situations among human individuals.
Confidence-building measures emerged from attempts by the Cold War superpowers and their military alliances to avoid nuclear war by accident or miscalculation. However, confidence-building measures also exist at other levels of conflict situations, and in different regions of the world although they might not have been called confidence-building measures.
The Grand Coalition must implement confidence-building measures from behind the scenes and through intermediaries with critical state institutions and key stakeholders to convince them that it is a government in waiting, that is ; for the people , by the people and with the people. More importantly, the Grand Coalition must also put in place confidence-building measures to help convince the nation that it is a government in waiting that appreciates Zimbabwe’s history but is mainly focused about the future of the country.
4) Counter rigging tactics
Vote rigging is one dimension of election irregularities. In its narrower aspects, vote rigging points to irregularities in the polling, counting, tallying and announcement of election results. Generally it includes fraud by multiple voting, voting by underage persons, adding ballots marked by persons who are not voting legally, interference with boxes, exclusion of valid ballots by counting officials, denying marginalised voters the right to vote, falsification of results sheet or deliberate fraud in tabulating results.
The Grand Coalition must implement counter vote rigging tactics by: setting up parallel vote tabulations to cross check results, respond appropriately to breeches of the electoral code of conduct and ensure an Election Management Environment with key role players who have a track record of high integrity that draws confidence in their ability to maintain the integrity of the electoral process.
The Grand Coalition must also minimise vote rigging by: ensuring that the electoral integrity must be prominent in the legal framework, parliamentary oversight and electoral management body, promote an Organized Civil Society that acts independently, cooperate with international partners on all levels supporting the process in a manner that makes for both robust comment on less-than-ideal practices and all the above are underscored by an active, engaged, informed and robust citizenry.
5) The Southern African Development Community (SADC)
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an inter-governmental organization headquartered in Gaborone, Botswana. Its goal is to further socio-economic cooperation and integration as well as political and security cooperation among 15 southern African states. It complements the role of the African Union.
The main objectives of Southern African Development Community (SADC) are to achieve economic development, peace and security, and growth, alleviate poverty, enhance the standard and quality of life of the peoples of Southern Africa, and support the socially disadvantaged through Regional Integration. These objectives are to be achieved through increased Regional Integration, built on democratic principles, and equitable and sustainable development.
In line with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) main objectives; the Grand Coalition must maintain good relations with the regional body so that the coalition can get favourable assessment of the 2018 election process and robust election monitoring to minimise rigging, intimidation, abductions and violence. Election monitors deployed before and after the 2018 elections will help in establishing a level electoral field. Like in West Africa were the regional grouping in the form of ECOWAS ensured a smooth transfer of power between Gambia’s ruling party and the opposition, the Grand Coalition needs to open diplomatic channels with SADC and the ruling parties in the region to guarantee assistance for a peaceful transfer of power in the event of an opposition victory.
Conclusion
In conclusion, as the ruling party continues to be in turmoil and a frail looking President Mugabe refuses to retire, the Trajectory to a Tsvangirai Presidency is much more likely to happen in 2018 than in 2008 because of the evolving political environment and favourable geo-political conditions. And more importantly, the 2018 election is likely to be the last bite at the cherry for Morgan Tsvangirai to compete as the presidential candidate for the Grand Coalition because younger ambitious lieutenants like Joice Mujuru, Nelson Chamisa and Tendai Biti will be pushing to be the Grand Coalition Candidate for the 2023 elections.
However, in order for Morgan Tsvangirai to be elected as state president and successfully capture state power; he firstly needs to ensure a united opposition with key plays, secondly implement confidence building measures with key stakeholders, thirdly run an effective political campaign and forth ensure counter rigging tactics before, during and after elections. After all, SADC and the international community will only come to the assistance of the opposition if the Grand Coalition proves beyond a reasonable doubt that it will have won the 2018 elections.
The Writer: Darlington Nyambiya is the President of the Local Solutions Council (LSC) , a leading Zimbabwe Think Tank. The LSC is a Think Tank with members from diverse Zimbabwean communities in politics, business, religion and sports. He is also a Pro Democracy Activist, Political Strategist, Human Rights Defender, Social Media Commentator, Writer and a Business Executive. Contact Details ; Skype ID : darlington.nyambiya , Twitter handle: D_Nyambiya, Email : [email protected] , Corporate Twitter Handle : lsc_thinktank For more information on Strategic Views on Zimbabwe log onto our website on :Website :www.localsolutionscouncil.com. Copyright © 2017 All Rights Reserved. The Article may not be published or reproduced in any form without prior written permission
