Au Revoir, Mrs Vice President?

By Alex T. Magaisa

There are two striking aspects of the on-going Zanu PF succession saga that have caught the imagination. The first is the swiftness and efficiency with which the bid for a Joice Mujuru Presidency has been utterly and completely decimated in a short space of time and in a manner so public it could not have been imagined.

The second is the meek and almost dutiful manner of the Mujuru faction’s submission and collapse in the face of the systematic and unrelenting onslaught.

The old cliché is that it is not over until the fat lady sings, but in this case, that is probably more than hopeful. The boys and girls who have in their various ways participated in this effort are probably smiling and shaking hands and those who imbibe are knocking a few bottles, celebrating a sure victory.

It is the events of last weekend and the muted response that suggests that the Mujuru faction has given up and will not be putting up any fight. Her failure to secure a nomination from her home province for the Central Committee of her party was clearly designed to humiliate.

It was a message that said, you do not have power anymore, not even in your own home. The declaration was emphatic.

It was the act of a victorious adversary in war, who after annihilating the opponent in the battlefield, marches into the front yard of the conquered and there, erects his flag, so that the rest of the world can see that the enemy is defeated.

Of what they did last weekend, Achebe would have described it the act of a man who comes into a man’s hut and defecates on the floor. It is an act of extreme provocation.

“If a man comes to my hut and defecates on the floor, what must I do?” an angry Okonkwo asks, challenging his colleagues whom he accuses of displaying cowardice.

“These people are daily pouring filth over us, and Okeke says we must pretend not to see?” laments Okonkwo. Okonkwo’s preferred approach in that circumstance would be to “take a stick and break his head” because in his view, “that is what a man does”. He would retaliate and defend his honour.

But, it seems Mujuru and her allies have chosen the Okeke way, to pretend not to see that someone has come in and defecated in their hut. They have not taken Okonkwo’s aggressive and retaliatory approach, well, so far, anyway.

There was a time, when it seemed that Mujuru’s quiet approach to this onslaught was not mere submissiveness but that there was some strategy to it. But as time progresses and as her group collapses in such a spectacular fashion, if there is some strategy to it, then it is a very strange one.

Because, as it is, her political career in Zanu PF is now at the mercy of Mugabe. Having failed to earn a nomination into the Central Committee, it is only Mugabe who can now offer her a life-boat in this sinking vessel or by the end of the years, she will now be an ordinary card-carrying member of the party, if she is not expelled.

The Central Committee is the principal organ of Congress, in terms of Zanu PF’s Constitution (s. 32). It is from the Central Committee that members of the Political Bureau (known to most as the Politburo) are drawn when the party President makes his appointments. Having failed to get nomination into the Central Committee, her chances of getting into the Politburo have just become extremely narrow. There is a lifeline but it is entirely dependent on Mugabe’s benevolence.

The President of the party has the power to nominate up to ten (10) members into the Central Committee. According to s. 32(7) of the Zanu PF Constitution, the Central Committee includes, “ten (10) members nominated by the Presidency on account of their outstanding contribution to either the armed liberation struggle of the country and/or its development after Independence”.

The question is whether Mugabe will use this power to rescue Mujuru and other heavyweights who have been casualties of the provincial nomination process, like Didymus Mutasa, an old buddy from the liberation days?

The two have been at the centre of scurrilous allegations in recent weeks, including the one that they plotted to assassinate Mugabe. It all seems ludicrous, given that when Mugabe has left the country in recent weeks, he has left Mujuru, still the country’s Vice President as the Acting President.

How do you leave someone who allegedly attempted to assassinate you in charge of the country while you are away? But that has not stopped the State media from repeating the allegations in every issue.

Mugabe has maintained a silent line over Mujuru during this period and f has made any insiuations, they have been indirect and often targeted at those said to be around her – the likes of Rugare Gumbo, Nicholas Goche, whom he said had been suspected of the dark arts, and Kudakwashe Bhasikiti, of whom he said was in the ‘wrong basket’, making fun of his name which is Karanga for basket. It was a cruel jibe.

News coming in as I write is that Mujuru has absconded today’s Politburo meeting, probably a sign of frustration and perhaps resignation. She has probably given up after the obviously engineered failure to secure nomination from her home province, which just a few weeks ago was fully behind her.

She has suffered the risk that we mentioned in these pages a few weeks ago – that at some point, her own supporters would begin to desert her as they seek protection and self-preservation in a nasty environment.

They are deserting her not because they do not like her but because they realise that she has lost power and politics being an utterly selfish business, they have decided to run for cover by embracing the erstwhile opponents.

Some might argue that her failure to pitch up for the Politburo, if true, is a form of protest. That might be the case but it is difficult to see what it will achieve. She might as well jump and claim that she decided her own fate rather than be pushed, although some might argue that there is enough conduct to suggest that she has been pushed already.

The situation is akin to the proverbial choice between jumping from a high storey building or sitting on a hotplate. It is hardly a choice.

But would Mugabe save her? It is hard to see how he would use his nomination rights to rescue her. If he rescues her, it would be the selfish reason that he would want to maintain uncertainty over his successor and that he would not want to give too much confidence to the faction that thinks it has already won.

That is because such a faction can now become a source of risk to him. Mugabe has always thrived on politics of divide and rule – getting the aspirants to fight each other, rather than fight him. The departure of Mujuru and her faction will leave only one of the two factions in the driving seat and the longer he remains, the more the faction will become impatient with him.

With the control they have now assumed across the entire party that could pose a serious hazard to his own power. He might not like that – it is Mujuru’s virtual control of the party that caused him to press the panic button and humiliate her.

A rescued Mujuru might not pose a threat to him anymore. She will be a lame duck deputy, with no allies and no power in the structures. She will be no more than an honorary VP. And she will be beholden to him. If anything, she would probably be grateful. And she would still be a useful buffer against the ambitious ones who think they are already there.

But then again, Mugabe might prefer not to waste his nomination powers on Mujuru and her allies and might choose instead, to bring in the proverbial dark horse that few have spoken about. Gideon Gono, the former Governor of the central bank has been quiet since the faction that is now very powerful delayed his bid to become a Manicaland Senator.

While his chances might appear limited in view of the power of this faction, I suspect he could be one of Mugabe’s ten nominees. And with Mugabe’s new power to appoint a VP, who knows what might happen?

I have a strong suspicion that if President Mugabe has any regrets in his long and eventful life, it is that he waited too long before he had a child, after the death of his first son in the 1960s. If Nhamhodzenyika were alive today, he would probably be President. President Mugabe would not have been the first to pass the baton to his progeny.

The President adores his daughter, Bona. He has spoken highly of her in the past, far more than he does of his sons. But the trouble is, she is in her mid-twenties. She is too young and probably delicate for the harsh world of Zimbabwean politics. Her marriage this year may have served a purpose less imagined – to graduate her in the eyes of people; to say that she is a mother of the house and therefore, old enough to be a leader of people.

I would not be surprised if he has entertained thoughts of appointing her, too, into the Politburo, so that she gets some apprenticeship while he is still in charge. That way, the young one will grow and learn the tricks of the political trade under the protective wing of the old gladiator that her father is.

With mother Grace controlling the women’s wing, the path will be clear for the young lady. I can’t imagine anyone in Zanu PF resisting such a move. After what we have seen recently, anything it possible.

Recent events and the fate of Mujuru have shown us that whatever power you think you have, ultimately, it is what Mugabe wants that counts. Mujuru had it all sewn up – or so it seemed – until Mugabe decided to chop her bid. All the structures were decimated and replaced.

There is nothing to stop him doing that to get backing for a candidate that he prefers. So with Mujuru now seemingly gone, you can expect to see an onslaught on the likes of Gono, in the State media and elsewhere.

It’s all very unpredictable. If one had said that Mujuru would be an ordinary card-carrying member by the end of 2014, no one would have taken them seriously. At the start of this year, she was in the ascendancy and she had control of the party’s structures, seemingly on course to succeed Mugabe.

But in the space of a few months, that dream has collapsed in a spectacular fashion. Mnangagwa has turned the tables and the operation has been swift, efficient and full of shock and awe.

It has all happened before our eyes, a real-life soap opera in which Grace Mugabe, the First Lady has been a leading character. No-one, not even in Hollywood, could have made up the script. It has been fascinating, enthralling, shocking and occasionally horrifying. But it has kept us glued to the political stage.

Now the final act is in play, as Congress is held. But some will say the climax has already passed. And still, others will insist that this is not the end. A pause maybe, but not the final act. There is only one wizard who holds all the answers: Time. Time shall tell.

Dr Alex Magaisa can be reached on waMagaisa@yahoo.co.uk. You can visit his blog: Newzimbabweconstitution.wordpress.com