Dragging the Mule to the Water

By Eddie Cross, MP

Nothing illustrated both the problems of the Transitional Government in Zimbabwe and the dilemma facing Zanu PF at the present moment than the events that occurred last Monday. We are six months into the life of this new government, at best it is dysfunctional and sterile, but despite all the resistance inside the machine, we are slowly pulling it down the road mapped out in the GPA. 

That road is clearly signposted in the GPA and the first real turning point was Monday. The GPA called for the first stakeholder’s conference to decide how the consultation and drafting phases were to be conducted and who was to drive the process. Several thousand delegates arrived and things got under way after a shambolic start. Then just as the Speaker of the House of Assembly was speaking a large group of political thugs went forward and attempted to break up the event.

Several people were beaten, one seriously and water and other substances were thrown at senior delegates who scrambled for the exit. The meeting was abandoned and after several hours delegates collected for lunch and then waited for the national leadership to decide what to do. The Police did nothing to stop this hooliganism which was led by several prominent Zanu PF leaders including a few Members of Parliament and at least two Cabinet Ministers. 

That night, after a long meeting, the three principals to the GPA came onto television and radio and said the conference would continue and that serious measures would be taken against those responsible for the attempt to disrupt the process. The following day under intense supervision by the Police who at last realised they had some responsibility, the conference resumed and by the end of the day had concluded its business. 

From all that I have heard and seen this was clearly a carefully planned effort to disrupt and delay the meeting. First Zanu had said that only a small number of people should attend, then that it could not go ahead as we had no money, then they argued we were wasting money when we could not pay people properly. 

The subsequent climb down and the part played by the President, showed just how much of a bind these guys are in. Mr. Mugabe knows full well that he has to be seen to be doing his best to make this thing work. In so doing he has to half heartedly help push the poor mule down the very road he is trying to get off. 

To compound his discomfort, he went off to the Non Aligned Summit in Egypt leaving Morgan Tsvangirai at home in the chicken run with a shotgun and no sooner was he out of sight than the Minister of Finance, Tendai Biti delivered his mid term review of the budget. He was unable to announce an increase in State revenues, but had a 40 per cent revenue grant from donors to ease the pain. 

The overall result was a carefully crafted and fully consulted package of measures which will contribute significantly to the slow repair of our reputation and the environment for economic stabilisation and growth. It was a conservative and tough revision – he raised civil service salaries by 40 per cent and promised to slowly start recognising grades and seniority.

He still thinks recovery will be very slow – forecast growth of less than 5 per cent, but I think this is also conservative and would not be surprised if GDP climbs by much more than this. For a start, my own figures now suggest that grant aid to Zimbabwe – the most generous form of aid, could reach our original target of US$1,5 billion. I am rather proud of that number because that was my personal projection some two years ago when we were crafting our strategies for turn around in 2007. 

He overstated the possibility of recovery in agriculture – misled by the usual false projections emanating from the Ministry of Agriculture, but recognised that industry was recovering fast and that investment in mining was rising. He spoke at length on the recovery in gold production and I am sure we will get back to the position in 12 months where we are again the 5th or 6th largest gold producer in the world.

By my own reckoning we are more or less on track. In the past six months we have halted inflation (Biti talked about zero inflation in the past six months), brought markets back into operation and food into free supply at prices that are regionally competitive. We have restored health services, opened schools and colleges and begun to repair our infrastructure and restore services. 

But we have failed to halt the destruction of our agricultural industry, failed to restore basic freedoms and rights, failed to restore our legal system and its independence from the political structures. The security chiefs still implacably resist the new dispensation and supported by Mr. Mugabe, are still running a parallel government to the Transitional Government and the GPA. The National Security Council is yet to meet; the JOC is gearing up to the political contest in 2010 by mobilising through the country. 

But despite that we have got the process of media reform underway. The Constitution Train has left the station and is on schedule and most important of all, we are still in business. The sceptism about the survival of the GPA is fading as we insist that no matter what the provocation, we are in this deal to the end. 

Zanu PF attempts to derail the train have failed so far, their leadership is on the train and anxiously watching for the first opportunity to stop the train or to get off. I understand the SADC summit is now set for September. We met a group of senior political leaders from Europe this week and urged them to put maximum pressure on regional leaders to support the GPA and to keep this train on the tracks. They should do that because any other route simply leads nowhere or to chaos. 

One thing about hauling a mule to water is that when it gets close enough it smells the water and then stops fighting and starts running itself. When that happens the reluctant Mr. Mugabe will find himself unable to keep up and will be left behind.

Did you find this information helpful? If you did, consider donating to fund our operations.